The Stress reaction and other Manu Ginobili folktales
(Written Saturday night.)
One $30, adjustable height ironing board.
One $6 chair cushion, which I am now sitting on.
Two $1 toilet scrubbers, which I will use at most twice before throwing away.
That is what I purchased this evening at Ikea. They have self-checkout lines there now, and I forgot they don't give you bags to carry out your stuff. I didn't feel like buying a bag I was just going to throw away, so I just hauled the stuff out to my car. On my way home I stopped at Super Fantastic Wal-Mart for soda. I again used the self-checkout line; it was either that or wait 20 minutes. In Wal-Mart. On a Saturday night. No thank you. Then drive thru at Taco Cabana. Then home.
It reminded me of something I wrote to a friend, back in the days when I wrote with an earnest belief my own words could change me:
Living alone in a condo where you never see your neighbors is considered "hip." It makes little sense when you strip away the packaging. So much of the American Dream seems superficial and isolationist. Move away to the suburbs. By a car for every adult so you don't have to share. A TV for every room so every family member can watch what they want. When did convenience come to mean the avoidance of human interaction? Success is measured by how alone one make his or her self. I am independent. Which is really the same as I am alone.
Well I don't know
I may go
Down or up or anywhere
But I feel
Like this scribbling might stay.
(That's not the Shins. That's Woody Guthrie.)
****
I will not pretend that Ginobili's injury keeps me up at night. Or that it affects me to the extent it affects Michael and, undoubtedly, many of you. But I understand the cold reality of the situation: there is no silver lining to this. This is a not a jammed pinky finger on his non-shooting hand. This is not taking advantage of an opportunity to get him some rest. This is the beginnings of a stress fracture. This is Manu staying off his leg for over a week. This is Manu getting out of game shape. Claiming this won't matter as long as "he's healthy for the playoffs" is pure myopia. (It's like buying a 3000 square foot house located 20 miles outside of Phoenix for $600,000 and telling yourself "the fact I can't afford the payments once the loan resests won't matter as long as the house is worth $700,000 by then." Well, duh.) Plain and simple, this injury makes it less likely he'll be 100% in the playoffs. Which means it's more likely we're doomed.
Doomed, I tell you.
Doomed.
Strangely enough, a couple days before his injury I was actually starting to think number 5 was a real possibility. Not probable, but possible. Coming into the season, the list of Western Conference teams capable of beating a healthy Spurs in a 7 game series was: the Lakers, Houston, New Orleans and Utah (in that order). Utah had suffered through injuries all season, and even when healthy I would give the Spurs an edge. New Orleans traded away their chance at beating the Spurs when they saladumped Chandler. Houston without McGrady wasn't a threat, and the Lakers were (in the realm of) beatable without Bynum.
It wasn't impossible to imagine a successful playoff scenario: Tim being Tim, Tony being unstoppable a couple of games, the role players continuing to play above their heads and Manu pulling 2005 out of his past a couple times. Maybe the Spurs get lucky and Cleveland takes care of Boston. Pop could figure out a way to prevent Lebron from beating us single-handedly, right? And they still don't have anyone to guard Tony, right?
But then the Spurs whiffed at the trading deadline.
And Chandler got untraded.
And Manu's frailty once again reminded us it will never be 2005 again.
What saddens me most about Manu's injuries is that they serve as a reminder that opportunities pass us by. 99% of NBA fans didn't appreciate Manu's playoff performance when it was happening. At the time he was mostly an unknown, an intrigue, a presumed one-hit wonder. Now he's been an All Star, and Barkley's screamed his name a thousand times, and John Hollinger has mentioned his greatness to the unwashed masses, and you can tell by the booing across the league that people now at least know who he is. Now he has the stage, the audience. If he were to lead the Spurs to the 2009 championship while putting up a TS% of 65.1% people would stop. They would contemplate. They would research.
Someone would compose a list of players who never had TS%s that high in the playoffs. It would include names like Shaquille O'Neal. Michael Jordan. Kobe Bryant. Larry Bird. Magic Johnson. Kareem Abdul Jabaar. Lebron James. Dwyane Wade. Tim Duncan. Paul Pierce. Kevin Garnett. Bill Walton. Bill Russell. Wilt Chamberlain.
Things would be put in perspective.
But the chance for perspective has left us, and a thousand yesterdays don't add up to one today. It's a cruel trick life plays on you: you never know where you're at, you're lucky to know where you've been, and by the time you realize any of this it's too late... you're already gone.
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Comments
Damn. Excuse me, I’m going to go watch this to cheer myself up now.
by Lauri on Feb 23, 2009 8:22 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Wow...
Well, I mostly agree with you…however your doom and gloom forgets something that a lot of Manu lovers forget. We made the WCF last year with a 70% Manu. We lost two games we should have won against the Lakers in that series without a healthy Manu. If he gets back for the playoffs, that’ll be great and he can get his game shape back then. Let’s not forget we have the greatest power forward of all time playing out of his mind. Are we the favorites? No, but we still have a good shot at getting where we want to go….and NOBODY wants to see the Spurs in the playoffs. Not LA, not Boston, not Cleveland, not Denver, and for sure not the Suns. I understand that Manu and Tim are getting older and the Spurs aren’t the same team they were, but let us not lose sight of where we are today…A good team with a chance to be great, which is a hell of a lot more then 90% of the NBA can say.
I’m not giving up hope.
One man's toxic sludge is another man's popuri
…Okay. Certainly well-written, but I couldn’t disagree more.
Apparently we’re back to that post you wrote in… December? Where you said we had no chances whatsoever of winning the championship this year.
Don’t get it. Houston is still not a threat, the Jazz are up and down, NO is stinking up the place and Chandler probably wants to kill someone, the Magic are mortal, KG is out for longer than Manu, and Bynum is still out, and there’re no new of his recovery. You can write the exact same post focusing on any of those teams.
What’s changed? You don’t know how Manu will play when he returns. If you agree that he was approaching 100% when he got injured, then he certainly has time to do it again – he will have a much shorter inactive period. Won’t he play about 20 games before the season’s over? 20 games.
Let’s wait till we see him out there before we give up, shall we? And in the meantime, let’s bring Pops from Austin. (SiMA, I just joined the bandwagon.)
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
http://dunkincheerleaders.blogspot.com
btw latin
did you post a link somewhere to your new blog? If in fact you have started, I would like to check it out. :D
No one reads the signatures. I could write “Manu is a fucktard and you can all kiss my ass” and no one would notice.
"It's a basic truth of the human condition that everybody lies. The only variable is about what."
What Chilai said, LionZion. It’s in my sig. Drop by. :)
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
http://dunkincheerleaders.blogspot.com
Guys, I think he was kidding.
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on Feb 23, 2009 1:56 PM CST up reply actions
O RLY?
Lion, were you? :)
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
http://dunkincheerleaders.blogspot.com
Lol..nope. i was serious :P
I meant to ask you coupla days ago…and so I just remembered and asked without looking really.
No worries. Happens. Now go and write hundreds of comments. :)
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
http://dunkincheerleaders.blogspot.com
Dammit. I consistently overestimate you peeps. You’ve bested me again, LD.
"If I was the kind of guy who posted a signature line, this would be it from now on." -SiMA
by SgtinManusArmy on Feb 23, 2009 10:10 PM CST up reply actions
Sucky Monday morning..
And my research simulation not working, at an impasse on a hw which I have no clue how to move forward on and now Powell makes me realize this :
“Living alone in a condo where you never see your neighbors is considered "hip.” It makes little sense when you strip away the packaging. So much of the American Dream seems superficial and isolationist. Move away to the suburbs. By a car for every adult so you don’t have to share. A TV for every room so every family member can watch what they want. When did convenience come to mean the avoidance of human interaction? Success is measured by how alone one make his or her self. I am independent. Which is really the same as I am alone."
….am not independent. /sigh
Oh well, like the perennial optimist that I am, maybe I will just hope for good playoff battles where we give a good account of ourselves and if that is accomplished I will just sit in my condo and lick my wounds in peace.
Tbh though, I still think, IF Manu does come back in three weeks time, we will still be in good shape. Somehow inexplicably, I still have strong hope atm. But its still early, so we will see.
TS %
Someone enlighten me please
The worst part is we dont have a 1st round pick to look forward to if the playoffs end earlier than expected
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
It’s one of Hollinger’s stats meant to evaluate how many points a player produces per shot attempt. For example, FTs don’t count as shot attempts, but produce points. A hypothetical player (let’s call him “Allen Iverson”) might shoot 6-20 in a given game, which would be a 30% shooting night. However, let’s say that 5 of the makes were threes, and he also shot 10-10 from the free throw line. That means he produced 27 points (5*3 + 1*2 + 10*1), and saying he “shot 30%” doesn’t accurately reflect his efficiency.
By contrast, let’s take another hypothetical player (let’s call him "Shaq") who shoots 7-10 from the field and 1-10 from the FT line. Traditional metrics would tell you he shot 70% from the field, which would be staggeringly good. It ignores that he wasted a bunch of touches by not getting any points out of his FT attempts.
The formula for TS takes shots attempted plus a fraction of FTs attempted and divides that by the points produced. In effect, saying Manu’s true shooting percentage is 65% is the same as a player who takes no threes and shoots no FTs but shoots 65% from the floor. That’s pretty good.
Im not too worreid about the stress reaction, reason is
manu was on a 23 ppg tear the three games before he was pulled ( Culminating in a 32 pt 7 reb 4ast 3 stl effort in the final game). So its doubtful this was bothering him a great deal . Sounds like they are erring on the side of caution.
Furthermore the stress reaction is to the non-weight bearing fibula ( oddly though, when i asked a couple of doctors at my work, they said they had never seen a stress reaction occuring in the fibula, only the tibia……..take that for whats its worth. Though i do believe they mentioned it CAN happen in the fibula)
Manu is going to come back very effective albeit probably in some pain….
I guess this was lost on most, but I still am more hopeful now than I was at the beginning of the season (in terms of #5).
I am just less hopeful that Ginobili will ever get the credit he deserves. That matters to me.
I think even if he did lead us to a title this year with dazzling play a la 2005, he still wun get his due in today’s nba propaganda. I really believe that. This is with respect to a layman.
A nba fan already knows the deal and if its not a spurs guy, chances are they hate him and wish they had a Manu. But a casual guy, like most of my asian friends, know Kobe and never heard of Manu…and its hard to impress them with rapturous prose over LA glitz and the mamba.
I was going to reply to this sentiment, but it deserves its own post, so I’ll do that sometime down the road.
"Like feel or follow or fuck" she said...
by Aaronstampler on Feb 24, 2009 3:53 AM CST up reply actions

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