That Final Play

by doggydogworld on Dec 8, 2009 11:48 AM CST

A lot of people are blaming Matt Bonner for "deciding to go 1-on-1 from the top of the key" on that fateful final play, so I thought I'd take closer look (continued after the break).

Down one with 9.3 seconds, RJ was supposed to inbound to Ginobili in the left corner. The play blew up before it ever got started. Duncan set a solid screen under the basket but just as Manu broke free Ronnie Brewer, who was defending the inbounds pass, shifted two steps to his right to cut off the passing lane. Did he get lucky? Did RJ telegraph the play? Or had Jerry Sloan simply seen it enough times (Ginobili in the corner passing back to Horry for the game-winning three against the Pistons in Game 5 of the 2005 Championship Series, Roger Mason in the corner drawing the and-1 foul from Derek Fisher to beat the Lakers, etc., etc., etc.) to properly prepare Brewer? I don't know. RJ did not telegraph with his head or body, but perhaps Brewer read his eyes (which I can't see on the replay). Brewer certainly never gave any indication he was going to slide that direction, in fact he kept looking the opposite way toward the top of the key. His sudden move toward the corner was as mysterious as it was perfectly timed.

After setting the screen Timmy broke toward the elbow. Okur guarded him perfectly, a phrase which perhaps has never before been uttered by man nor appeared in print. This fact alone makes me think Coach Sloan told his guys what was coming. Timmy finally got open a foot from the 3 point line, which is outside his range unless the opponent is Phoenix. Duncan quickly passed to Bonner, who was even further out of scoring position. The outcome of the game thus came down to four Spurs who just made the NBA's top 50 list watching Matt Bonner go 1-on-1 against Carlos Boozer.

So who do we blame? Bonner? He was just a decoy whose only job was to draw a Utah big man away from the lane. RJ? Should he have have forced that pass to Manu in the corner? Maybe he should have showed some basketball IQ, realized the play was broken and called timeout? Oh, wait, Pop had already burned all the timeouts (mostly during the 3rd quarter massacre), so by not calling timeout RJ actually was showing basketball IQ. What about TImmy? When a big gets pushed too far out of position it's natural to pass out to a guard for a repost or quick pick-and-roll. Unfortunately this time it wasn't a guard standing out there.

The whole play was just out of sync from the start. I thus nominate it for Play of the Year, since it perfectly represents the season to date.

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Comments

This is so convincing. Now I’m confused. Wayne? Any rejoinder to doggydogworld’s analysis?

I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.

by Lauri on Dec 8, 2009 3:25 PM CST reply actions

He is clearly to blame. Bonner caught the ball at the top of the key with 8-9 seconds. (I’ll check when I get off work.) Yes, it was a busted play but Bonner chose to immediately put the ball on the floor rather than survey the floor and find a play-maker. He did not give anyone a chance to come get the ball. As I said, McDyess in that situation catches the ball, pivots, and waits for a guard. He does not panic and put the ball on the floor without looking.

Bonner is not to blame for the loss or the busted play. But he is to blame for panicking. As a big man catching the ball 4 feet inside the half court line, you do not immediately put he ball on the floor.

"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles

by Fred Silva on Dec 8, 2009 3:35 PM CST reply actions

I think Bonner’s hot shooting during the night put Pop on the spot. He should’ve had another slasher in these, but considering Matty’s game, how could he not play him?

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by LatinD on Dec 8, 2009 4:41 PM CST reply actions

Bonner, Finley, Mason, Dice, Ratliff, Hairston, Haislip, Blair, Bogans, Mahinmi, Hill, Ginobili, Duncan, Parker, Jefferson.

These are the players on our roster who I think SHOULD NOT take the ball to the hoop in that situation.

So Bonner supposedly caught the ball at around 8 secs, and began to drive at around 6. Six seconds is an eternity. That’s the amount of time the Suns used to take up in practically EVERY possession. A lot could have been done in six seconds. Even Manu, Tim, or Tony should not have started to take it to the hoop. Manu, Tim, or Tony would not have started to take it to the hoop.

Yes, I think Bonner should have been playing during that final possession. He’s had the hot hand, and opponents would at least not leave him. But yes, I think he panicked. And no, he shouldn’t have tried to take it in his own hands (even if he was feeling mighty confident).

"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50

by theonlyromeo on Dec 8, 2009 8:39 PM CST reply actions

Sweet, an ally. I wrote this after watching the play in slow motion after watching it around 10 times.

Alright, just watched it again to get the clock correct. RJ inbounds the ball to Tim with 9.3 seconds left. Bonner receives the pass with 8.3 seconds. The ball is out of his hands for his first dribble at 7.9 seconds. He fakes left and crosses to the right as Manu streaks to get the ball on the left side. (Again, I’m watching this right now.) Bonner’s head is down and he never sees Manu. He releases his shot with 4.8 left on the clock. Clearly, if he is taking that bad of a shot with 4.8 seconds remaining, there were other options.

"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles

by Fred Silva on Dec 8, 2009 10:33 PM CST up reply actions

Also, we have a second by second screen shot demonstrating that Manu was open, followed by my comments.

http://img34.yfrog.com/i/spursjazz022009127.png/

Thanks. Just follow Manu; he is open from the start. If Bonner had just held the ball he sees Manu and then we have Manu with the rock, game on the line. For me, that’s preferable.

Also, check out Bonner’s tunnel vision. He never gives anyone a chance to get open, or himself the opportunity to see them get open. He immediately puts the ball on the floor, his head down, and drives in like a pregnant penguin.

"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles

by Fred Silva on Dec 8, 2009 10:35 PM CST up reply actions

And what if Bonner “just held the ball” out there at half court and Manu didn’t come? Then you’d be tearing him a new one for standing still like a bozo 40 feet from the basket while precious seconds ticked away. You claim, with no hint of irony, that Bonner erred by exercising his weak dribble-drive skills and then you turn right around and say he should have exercised good clock management and court vision — skills he also does not have — to win the game.

The fact that Bonner lacks all skills necessary to initiate a last-second game winning improvisation from half court does not mean he should have been on the bench. He was a decoy, and an effective one. It’s absurd to say what McDyess would do in that position because he’s too useless of a decoy to ever be that position. If McDyess ran out past the 3 point line Boozer would just laugh at him and go double Timmy or Manu.

The biggest single error in this entire sequence is Timmy passing to the decoy (to his credit he owned up to this in interviews). The cardinal rule of decoys is you don’t shoot at them in duck hunting and you don’t pass to them in basketball. It destroys the whole purpose of their intended decoy-ness. Had Tim faced up and noticed there was nothing behind Okur but 18 feet of empty space and an open basket we would not be having this inane conversation about which set of non-existent end-of-game half-court point guard skills Bonner should have exercised.

by doggydogworld on Dec 8, 2009 11:39 PM CST up reply actions

I’m drinking your kool-aid. doggy dog. I like this flavor best.

I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.

by Lauri on Dec 9, 2009 12:25 AM CST up reply actions

I actually agree that Bonner should be in the game as a decoy. I agree that it was a broken play with the ball ending up in his hands. I agree that it wasn’t his fault the ball went to him (unless he’s secretly a Jedi).

But people must also agree that he made the wrong decision when he began to drive. I’d bet that after seeing how it unfolded and after watching it on replay, Bonner would rather have passed the ball. Even Manu makes mistakes. Tim makes mistakes. Tony makes mistakes. All I’m saying is that Bonner made a mistake there.

Had it been three seconds left and Bonner still didn’t see anyone to pass to, maybe he’d have been left with no other choice. As it is, he had a choice. He just made the wrong one.

For the record, I don’t believe I have ever seen a pregnant penguin.

"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50

by theonlyromeo on Dec 9, 2009 1:04 AM CST up reply actions

Pop speaks:

"It wasn’t drawn up for [Bonner]," Popovich said. "Sometimes, what you draw doesn’t happen, and someone else ends up doing something. It wasn’t drawn for him, but he did the best job he could under the circumstances."

Emphasis mine, and that’s where I disagree.

"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50

by theonlyromeo on Dec 9, 2009 1:58 AM CST up reply actions

Well said, doggy.

Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 9, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions

So doggy’s argument(in some sense everyone is saying the same thing((Bonner has no skills)) btw, just arguing nuances) points to one fact I suppose and that I completely agree.

Its all Timmy’s fault. Period. He made the wrong pass. Not a clutch play. Why the hell would you pass to a dummy(decoy).

by LionZion on Dec 9, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions

When an animal is faced with mortal danger, you know how the adrenaline gets released and the muscles go into a reflexive crouch and the vision becomes tunnel vision. You don’t? Watch Bonner’s reaction in the last play :D

by LionZion on Dec 9, 2009 5:01 PM CST up reply actions

The play was all fucked up and Bonner did the opposite of freeze. He put his head down like a bull. Oh well, Tim probably shouldn’t have given him the ball way out there anyway. I’d rather Bonner do what he did, then freeze.

Just call me The Profit

by Manuwar on Dec 9, 2009 2:59 AM CST reply actions

DUDE im over dislikeing any player,i dislike the LINE-UP

IF they put in 3 GIRAFFES IN THE FRONT COURT FOR A little bit WE MIGHT SEE US GET THROUGH A 3rd quarter…through in a 6’10 guy at small forward for once.Dice,Duncan,Bonner,all can hit a15 ft jump shot.against a 6’7guy all the easier…Lakers do it.Mavs do it.Celtics do it.

by sid45 on Dec 9, 2009 4:18 AM CST reply actions

You have got it SO. WRONG. Anyone with the slightest bit of basketball IQ knows it’s elephants we need. Elephants.

I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.

by Lauri on Dec 9, 2009 9:56 AM CST up reply actions

And this is why we love you, Lauri. We CU fans were looking up the NCAA rules this year to see if we could recruit Ralphie as a RB. We thought she’d probably be a better option for those short yardages situations.

Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen

by CapHill on Dec 9, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions