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Game Preview #26: Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs - War of Attrition

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This time, it's in our house.  Let's get a W for Christmas.

Everyone here probably knows by now that the Blazers are my second favorite NBA team.  This year the basketball gods have not been kind to me, with both of my teams failing to meet the lofty expectations set by their respective fanbases.  The Blazers even seem to be cursed, as they have six players injured, and even owner Paul Allen has fallen victim of the hex, since he was diagnosed with lymphoma earlier in the season.  [After I wrote this, Joel Przybilla also went down with a knee injury in the game against Dallas]  The Blazer fan in me says WHAT. THE. F*%@.  At least they'll get good draft position, I guess.  Spurs fans, count your blessings.

So, now that the Debbie Downer part is over, let's preview this game, shall we?

Star-divide

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Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
Where: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
When: December 23, 2009, 7:30 PM Spurs time
Watch: KRRT 35 (San Antonio); CSN(Oregon/Washington)

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How They Stack Up
 
12-4 Home 10-4
3-6 Road 7-8
101.9
Offense 96.4
96.8 Defense 92.7
47.8 FG% 45.2
38.9
3-pt% 35.8
74.0
FT% 78.2
42.6
Rebounds 43.2
14.3
TOs 14.0
6-4 Last 10 5-5
Won 3
Streak Won 1
2nd, Southwest(tie) Position 2nd, Northwest

 
Country/Time Zone Game Time
Argentina 10:30 PM
West Coast
5:30 PM
Philippines 9:30 AM
Central Europe 2:30 AM
Palestine/Egypt 3:30 AM
East Coast 8:30 PM
Libertaria
6:30 PM
Perth, AUS 9:30 AM
Tokyo, JP 10:30 AM
Sydney, AUS 11:30 AM

Spurs
(15-10)
Matchups

Blazers
(18-12)

Tony Parker
Baguette!

Point Guard

Tony finally bounced back from whatever was holding him down in our last game, and let's hope we see some more of that tonight.  Miller's a smart player, good distributor, and historically gives Tony problems, so I still say this is close.  Miller's had some struggles this season, most notably learning to play alongside a 2-guard that dominates the ball even more than he does.  Steve Blake is probably going to be used as a 2 guard in the absence of Rudy Fernandez, but Miller's new backup is pretty dangerous, too.

Advantage: Spurs


Andre Miller
Looking Over His Shoulder

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Keith Bogans
DOOM

Shooting Guard

Bogans has scored in double digits for 3 straight games, on great shooting.  He's also been doing his thing on defense, like he always does.  Come to think of it, Keith earned his starting job against the Blazers, by making Roy work hard from the start.  He's got his work cut out for him again.  Even though Brandon's numbers are down ever so slightly from last season, he's incredibly dangerous, and Keith needs to stick to him like glue.  Roy will get his, but if Keith makes him work really hard for it, that should pay dividends for us on the other end of the floor.

Advantage: Blazers


Brandon Roy
Alpha Dog Complex

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Richard Jefferson
???

Small Forward

RJ's been a real enigma, but he's definitely playing better than he was prior to the last 7 games.  He's been scoring in double figures for 6 of those games, and he's more involved on defense.  I'd still like him to attack consistently throughout the game, because he's done very well when he's aggressive.  Webster is a solid threat at both ends of the floor, and has been a bit more consistent for the Blazers.  If RJ can channel his aggressive side for more than a few possessions, this will easily be in his favor.  Somehow, I'm not convinced he will.

Advantage: Neither


Martell Webster
Solid Player

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Tim Duncan
20/10

Power Forward

In case you didn't know, Timmy always gets the white box.  This season, he's as good as ever, and nobody's been able to stop him.  I like Aldridge, and he has all the physical tools to be a dominant PF.  In fact, he's already one of the top PF's in the West, but he's not Timmy and never will be.

Advantage: Spurs


LaMarcus Aldridge
Athlete

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DeJuan Blair
The Beast

Center

Blair has gone back to the starting lineup, displacing Antonio McDyess. I was going to give Przybilla the advantage here, but after his injury, the Blazers now don't have a real center. Howard is my best guess for the starter in Oden/Przybilla's place. Jeff Pendergraph and Anthony Tolliver(yes, that one) should also see playing time. But, there's really nobody good enough to oppose Blair now.

Advantage: Spurs


Juwan Howard
Not a Center

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George Hill
Leader of the BAM

Bench & Role Players

Remember when we all wanted Pop to free George Hill for being chained to the bench?  Well, there's been a similar movement amongst Blazer fans for the better part of 2 years, who wanted Bayless to break free of his bench bondage.  He's been freed, and he's a pretty good weapon.  I saw him tear up the Spurs at summer league, and that was no fluke.  That said, Portland's depth is really hurting from the injuries - the BAM still takes this one, even without Bonner and Fin.

Advantage: Spurs


Jerryd Bayless
Tony 0.9

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Gregg Popovich
Great Coach

Coach

Nate's been doing a great job, if somewhat unheralded, for several years.  Both of these guys are having to deal with chemistry issues among some new additions, but Nate's job is made much harder by the injuries.  Lots of respect for Nate, but Pop is still the best X's and O's guy in the league.

Advantage: Spurs


Nate McMillan
Good Coach
  images via yahoo.com  

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Other Factors

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Intangibles

Injuries and rest are in our favor, for once.  

Advantage:  Spurs

Mojo

Neither of these teams are meeting expectations, so nobody really has the mojo.

Advantage:  Neither

Winner

The Spurs should be ready for this one, and I'm betting they're ready to avenge the loss they suffered in PDX last month.  The Blazers are like a wounded animal now, and they'll be bringing the intensity.  Something in my gut tells me that the Spurs are going to bring it, too... and finally make us believe again.
Prediction:  Spurs win.

Keys To The Game

  • Defensive Rebounding - The Spurs are the #2 team in the league(behind Memphis) in rebounding differential, but let the Clips get on the offensive boards the other night.  Guess who the #3 rebounding team is?  Portland.  We must keep them off the offensive glass.
  • Points in the Paint - Without Oden [or Przybilla, now] plugging up the middle, Portland's interior defense is slightly more vulnerable to attack.
  • Bench Play - Our bench is our biggest advantage over most teams, and the depleted Blazers are no exception. George, Manu, Antonio, and the rest of the BAM need to launch a full assault on the Blazers during their minutes.

Strength of Schedule

We've had a day off since the win over the Clips, and will have another two days off before heading to Milwaukee to take on our least favorite Eastern Conference opponent.  The schedule still gives us no excuses for a while

The Blazers are on a SEGABABA, after getting a nice W last night in Dallas.  After tonight, the Blazers head home, where they'll take on the Nuggets in a Christmas day game.

Last Time They Met

The last time we met the Blazers was in the 5th game of the season, where we got our asses handed to us by Greg Oden and crew, 96-84.  Let's hope the lack of frontcourt depth for Portland works in our favor this time.  RJ kicked ass for us in that game - more of that would be great, as long as some other folks get involved for us as well.

Some Other Reading

Blazers

Blazersedge - Here you'll find one of the busiest hoops blogs on SBN, including the most insane comment rate on game threads that you will ever find.  Good luck keeping up with these guys, they're experts.
Bustabucket - This one's a lot easier to follow, I promise.  The Blazers' Bloguin affiliate is very aesthetically pleasing, and I love their previews - check it out.

Spurs

48 Minutes of Hell:  Best damn TrueHoop affiliate out there. Always a must visit Spurs site.  Tim V and Graydon seem to be less active there lately, but unlike us, I think they have lives.
Project Spurs:  Features live chats, call-in shows and podcasts, with lots of content.  Give 'em a try.

Where to Tune In

TV 

This game will be aired on My35 in San Antonio, and on Comcast Sports Network in the Portland area.  Why this isn't nationally televised, I don't know.  If you have cable or satellite, you'll have to look up your individual channel. And of course, there's always League Pass for the haves.  For the have nots, read on.

Online

As always, NBA League Pass is recommended for those who are willing to pony up the cash.  Most Spurs games will be broadcast there, which is especially helpful for those of us who aren't in the San Antonio area.  This game is no exception.

Please don't post links to illegal game feeds in the game thread. Links to illegal feeds are not permitted on SBNation, but you can probably find them out there on the internets if you're resourceful and desperate.  In fact, nobody can stop you from googling "atdhe". You can also shoot an email to dmenendez@gmail.com for more assistance.

NBA League Pass audio is still free this year, so check it out.

Radio

If you're in the San Antonio area and aren't near a TV, tune in to WOAI (1200 AM).

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Tony Parker is better than you*.

Feb 2009 by sungo - 66 comments

Comments

Display:

If we beat this injury-depleted playoff team, not much will be gained. I still think we should try to win by double digits with the big three (okay, four, dammit) sitting the fourth out.

"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50

by theonlyromeo on Dec 22, 2009 11:31 PM CST reply actions  

If not much would be gained by winning, maybe we should try for the loss then.

"If an expert says it can't be done, get another expert"
- DBG

by LasEspuelas on Dec 22, 2009 11:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Some third quarters, I feel like the Spurs are desperately trying to lose.

"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50

by theonlyromeo on Dec 23, 2009 12:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Apparently Roy might even be out or, at least, playing hurt. Tweaked his shoulder against Dallas.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 12:09 AM CST reply actions  

If no one can stop Blair....

Perhaps I read the preview wrong but if nobody can stop Blair at center position, how come the Blazers have the advantage….?

by The Augustus on Dec 23, 2009 12:53 AM CST reply actions  

An oversight. When I thought Przy was playing, I gave him the advantage.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 12:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Cool preview, Timster. If you guys still want I can do the Xmas post tomorrow at night, but someone will have to put it in the front page.

"Under the tutelage....of Randy Tutelage"

by Hipuks on Dec 23, 2009 12:58 AM CST reply actions  

xmas post?

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 1:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Ahhhh. yeah, sure.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 1:20 AM CST up reply actions  

Cool. Just put it up, H. Someone will take care of it, fo’ sho’.

by silverandblack_davis on Dec 23, 2009 1:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Don’t put naked elves in it.

Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 23, 2009 6:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Excellent preview of your 2nd team, riki. Will be going out of town tomorrow, I can only hope they broadcast the game there.

by silverandblack_davis on Dec 23, 2009 1:33 AM CST reply actions  

Say, Tim. DId True Hoop already get a replacement Blazers’ affiliate?

by silverandblack_davis on Dec 23, 2009 1:34 AM CST reply actions  

I don’t think so, but haven’t looked in a while.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 6:48 PM CST up reply actions  

nice preview tim. sorry that your team is plagued.

When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.

by the little o on Dec 23, 2009 2:33 AM CST reply actions  

Really good writeup, but
Points in the Paint – Without Oden [or Przybilla, now] plugging up the middle, Portland’s interior defense is slightly more vulnerable to attack.

That’s gotta be one of the biggest understatements of the year. Who do the Blazers have to play some D in the paint…Juwan Howard?

by seanovan mcnoob on Dec 23, 2009 3:22 AM CST reply actions  

Tim likes the Blazers, he doesn’t want to face the harsh truth.

"I will five all over this blog." - JRW

by Manuwar on Dec 23, 2009 3:51 AM CST up reply actions  

There is no excuse to lose this game to a good team that has everything going against them making it a very scary trap game. (knocks on wood)

It’ll make me sick if we go 2 down in our season series to the Blazers already. I mean we already blew the Utah series.

The hometown holiday crowd should be very good tonight.

by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 8:03 AM CST reply actions  

I’ll try to do my small part to cheer on the Spurs at the game.

by Spurlady on Dec 23, 2009 8:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Ditto. And I’ll try to keep the curse words to a bare minimum.

Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney

by bellasa on Dec 23, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Here comes more small ball (bye Theo)…

Bayless ought to have what against Frenchie? 15-20 pts?

"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich

by Hirschof on Dec 23, 2009 8:03 AM CST reply actions  

Maybe not about Theo. Pop has been running 10-12 guys almost every game this season. With Rocket and Finperro out, I still see Theo getting 10 minutes of play before Hairston or Haislip.

by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 8:58 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree. Pop seems to trust Theo more than the other end of the bench guys, so I can see The Rat getting most of Bonner’s playing time for the foreseeable future.

Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen

by CapHill on Dec 23, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

I like Dice and Blair to get about 5 mins apiece of Bonner’s playing time, and Ratliff to get the rest. Unless we’re winning blowouts, in which case Haislip factors into it.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Request for Lexicon Verification

JRW, has “The Rat” been used previously?

I like it.

by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Cap’s been using it since we signed him.

We also had Mighty Mouse for Stoudamire?

JRW really needs to work on … ummm… you know…. the stuff.

Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney

by bellasa on Dec 23, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

I haven’t been checking the game threads recently, but I hope its catching on like Youngevity did.

by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 12:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Youngevity™ has been getting use, as has “Oldgevity” when Dice and The Rat are on the floor together. I don’t know if I was the first one to use The Rat, but I like it and will continue to use it.

You know, we PtRers might have better luck keeping track of nicknames if we had a sidebar post that gave the history and definitions behind our crazy terms. Does anyone else think that’s a good idea?

Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen

by CapHill on Dec 23, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

That’s some good thinking, but what would we call it?

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Get My Off Lawn?

Consider the gun jumped
5 in 10

by jollyrogerwilco on Dec 25, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions  

Varner wants Yawn to play. I don’t blame him, but Ian got into Pop’s doghouse, and probably isn’t coming out of it.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 12:02 PM CST reply actions  

That picture of the riverwalk made me really miss living in San Antonio for the holidays. Many great nights just walking and people watching with friends and family.

What the Bowen giveth Horry taketh away. --LatinD (2008 Playoffs Round 2, Game 1)

the Spurs do not defeat you so much as they grind you into tiny shards of psychological wreckage.
-the Denver Post

by Hamer_SpursFan on Dec 23, 2009 12:26 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

It’s especially lovely right now. Mostly cool and sunny during the day and crisp and clear at night. Downtown is beautiful.

Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney

by bellasa on Dec 23, 2009 12:49 PM CST up reply actions  

WERD

It is what it is.
We are who we are.

by SinCitySpur on Dec 23, 2009 3:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Awww, Sin is in SA for the Holidays! Very Nize.

Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney

by bellasa on Dec 23, 2009 4:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Trail Blazer fan here

Well, it’s an uphill battle tonight for the Trail Blazers. Not that it matters much, but I’d guess Lamarcus would be manning the middle tonight as much if not more then Juwann. In such case, I’d give the edge to Portland. LA is better rebounder then Juwann, and Duncan has a penchant for shooting that medium range J (I love that shot off the glass btw) so no sense in making Lamarcus cover that. He’ll be more effective down low. Juwann has been good at finding the soft spots in opponents D’s and has been hitting the 15 footer with fair regularity.

Also of note, Brandon took a beating last night against Dallas and nobody is certain of his status. If Roy is out, then on behalf of Trail Blazer fans, I beseech of you guys not to turn it into a slaughter.

Best of luck this season after tonight’s game and remember it’s the lakers who are the common enemy.

"In order to keep a true perspective of one's importance, everyone should have a dog that will worship him and a cat that will ignore him."

by bow4meow on Dec 23, 2009 2:29 PM CST reply actions  

by give Portland the edge I mean....

in the individual match-up at Center, not the overall game.

"In order to keep a true perspective of one's importance, everyone should have a dog that will worship him and a cat that will ignore him."

by bow4meow on Dec 23, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Their both French. They won’t even notice he’s gone.

GOL. And recced to the 37th pick.

Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen

by CapHill on Dec 23, 2009 3:18 PM CST up reply actions  

You favor Aldridge over TJ Ford?

I would like to attack your opinion irrationally in a pithy way, but I’m just too worn out by holiday expectations.

Neither he nor Gob were prepared for the challenges of using cats to catch a seal.

by Cedarpark on Dec 23, 2009 4:14 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah, i think its style of play and that i saw him play more when i was there than ford…durant was there right after i left….

TJ Ford is incredibly awesome though

by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 4:22 PM CST up reply actions  

I feel for you guys. There is not much sense to be made out of the situation there. Crazy injuries.

As for a blowout. I doubt our team on that.

by LionZion on Dec 23, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions  

What’s up beaches!!! I’m home for the holidays, I’ll be going to the game tonight!!! WOOT WOOT!!!

It is what it is.
We are who we are.

by SinCitySpur on Dec 23, 2009 3:46 PM CST reply actions  

And who will start the game thread, then?

Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 23, 2009 6:43 PM CST up reply actions  

I will, from the lovely confines of the AT&T Center, for extra mojo.

It is what it is.
We are who we are.

by SinCitySpur on Dec 23, 2009 7:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Too awesome.

Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 23, 2009 7:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Game thread is up, beaches.

I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.

by Lauri on Dec 23, 2009 7:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Last night on NBA Fast Break Bruce Bowen was breaking down the Lakers defense and they looked like the Spurs of old; perimeter players funneling everything to Bynum and Gasol and each of them standing in good position with arms outstreched altering all drives to the basket. On another thread olf and Tim were talking about how the Lakers have surprisingly had one of the leagues top defenses. They are using their personel perfectly. I hope Pop is saving Theo for the playoffs, I really do.

Anyway as for tonight we should get over half of our points from in the paint.

"I will five all over this blog." - JRW

by Manuwar on Dec 23, 2009 5:27 PM CST reply actions  

Hey, I graduated from the same school as Bruce. And defense wins championships dammit!

The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."

by olf on Dec 23, 2009 7:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Free Spurs Tickets for tonight's game

Two of them. First to email me at spurs.insight@gmail.com gets them. Sec 110, Row 29, Seats 5&6. I will forward them to your inbox and you will have to print them. Be Fast. Merry Christmas from me.

"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles

by Fred Silva on Dec 23, 2009 5:57 PM CST reply actions  

Great preview, Tim, thanks.

Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 23, 2009 7:02 PM CST reply actions  

roy isnt playing

bayless leaves over my dead body
Start Bayless (in a 2 guard lineup)
if you should strike Oden down he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine
#52
#4
Can someone give a rational explanation of why blake plays 36 minutes a game?

by thomasikehara on Dec 23, 2009 7:04 PM CST reply actions  

Daaaamn…

Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 23, 2009 7:05 PM CST up reply actions  

That’s bad news for both teams. We’re going to lose, because we won’t take it seriously.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn’t want to be right. Really, I didn’t.

The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!

by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 10:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Anyone has the game thread?

Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

by LatinD on Dec 23, 2009 7:16 PM CST reply actions  

Yep. It was scheduled on the calendar and everything.

I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.

by Lauri on Dec 23, 2009 7:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Daaaang!

Looks like all those Spurs advantage match-ups didn’t really pan out. Portland is going to keep rolling. Definitely not out of the playoffs. Especially when Rudy, Batum, Patty and Outlaw are expected back before the season is over.

by Gforcepuma on Dec 24, 2009 6:34 AM CST reply actions  

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