The Hunt: 12/21/09
by BlaseE on Dec 21, 2009 2:22 PM CST
40 comments
This started as a comment to the Clippers game preview tonight, but thought I'd save myself from LatinD complaining it was long enough to just be a FanPost. I added more content once it became a FanPost as well.
I don't know how often I'll write these, but here is a look at the Spurs hunt for a better seed/standing. I'm going to start with important games of the week. For now, my concerns are Western Conference seeding and the Division lead. Rooting against Boston, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Orlando against a Western playoff team because of Finals home court is jumping the gun. We currently sit at 8th in the West, but that is a deceptive position. I'm also going to take a look at the Lakers schedule to see if and when they will fall back into the pack.
Important Games This Week
Monday
Tuesday
Blazers @ Mavericks
Thunder @ Lakers
Wednesday
Rockets @ Magic
Jazz @ Heat
Hawks @ Nuggets
Thunder @ Suns
Thursday
No Games on Christmas Eve
Friday
Cavs @ Lakers
Clippers @ Suns
Nuggets @ Blazers : We win either way though.
Saturday
Grizzlies @ Mavericks
Lakers @ Kings (great home team so far)
Sunday
Rockets @ CavsMavericks @ Nuggets : Since both can't lose, I'll be an optimist and say, at least one has to lose. Since both teams are over .500, that is beating the night in-night out odds. Maybe you give the slight edge to Nuggets since Mavericks are in our division. I'd also rather our opponents to not have any impressive road victories.
Where We Stand (Loss Column)
Right now, we are 2 losses back on Dallas and 1 loss back on Denver and Phoenix. Phoenix is going for their 10th loss tonight. The Spurs are shown as the 8th seed in the standings, but that is just because we've played the least amount of games. The Lakers rule the West with only 4 losses.
A Cursory Look at the Lakers
This seems like a good place to look at the Lakers and hopefully trash talk them as well. They obviously lead the West with only 4 losses. I've heard their schedule is easy so I ask, "how have they done against playoff teams?" I'm not counting Detroit, Milwaukee or Toronto as playoff teams for the East, but I'll count OKC as a 9th playoff team in the West. I'm giving overtime games a 0 margin of victory.
Without Pau
* Loss, Dallas, -14
* Win, Atlanta, +8
* WIn, @ OKC, 0, FIGABABA
* Win, @ Houston, 0, SEGABABA
* Win, Phoenix, +19, FIGABABA
* Loss, @ Denver, -26, SEGABABA
* Loss, Houston, -10
With Pau
* Win, OKC, +16
* Win, Miami, +1
* Win, Phoenix, +20
* Win, Utah, +24
* Loss, @ Utah, -8, SEGABABA
Those Phoenix wins look less impressive as time goes by (especially since both were in LA), but I'm incredibly jealous of that 24 point win against Utah. Without Pau, the Lakers could have easily dropped the two overtime games and started 2-5 (how the Spurs started) instead of 4-3 against playoff teams.
Obviously, with Pau, they have been more impressive going 4-1 with an awesome 10.6 margin of victory, but the only loss was their only road game of the 5. By the time we get a crack at them on January 13th, the Lakers will have played Phoenix and Portland on the road and Dallas, Houston, OKC, and Cleveland in LA. They play @ Dallas the night after our game. That is 9 playoff teams in the next 4 weeks. In that same timespan, we only play Portland, Miami, Dallas, Lakers, and @ OKC. If they drop 4-5 of their tough games, and we win at least 3 of our 5, the hunt for #1 could be on.
Other Tough Stretches for LA
They have 8 road games in a row from January 21st to Feb. 1st. It starts with an @ Cleveland and has @ Boston as a FOGAFINI. Their February is tough with home games against Boston, Denver (twice) and us and road games against Portland, Utah, and Dallas. The Portland and Dallas games are both SEGABABAs.
Their March is rough with 11 road games to 4 home games and 3 SEGABABAs. By comparison, the Spurs go 7 home, 10 away, and 6 SEGABABA's. 9 of our 17 games are against the teams I used earlier as playoff teams compared to the Lakers 7 of 15 games. 6 of our 9 tough games are away vs. all 7 of the Lakers good games.
I didn't end up talking much trash, but I definitely could see the Lakers dropping back into the Spurs, Mavericks, and Nuggets pack. I think the Suns overachieved to start the season and overachieved when they beat us.
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Ha, the poll seems pretty one-sided.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
by Tim C. on Dec 21, 2009 3:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I voted “No.”, and am a little surprised by the results to be honest.
by BlaseE on Dec 21, 2009 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m a bit surprised too.
I voted “Yes”, only because the Lakers take each regular season game like it’s a playoff game.
by Daniel_B on Dec 21, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The auto-tagger kind of messed up my picks for the important games this week…..just noticed that…….
by BlaseE on Dec 21, 2009 3:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
To anyone who voted the third option, you really don’t think the Spurs can lose 5-6 less games than the Lakers over a 56 game period, but you could see Dallas losing 3-4 less or Denver/Phoenix losing 4-5?
Let’s say these Lakers finish with a record of 57-25 going 35-21 the remainder of the year. You can’t see the Spurs gelling and going 43-15. That seems near difficult but let’s jump forward a month. We’re going to be looking at a 25-12 record and LA will be at 30-9. So with both teams getting ready for their gauntlets, you can’t see the Spurs losing 3 less games over 43 games for LA and 45 games for the Spurs. The Lakers would go for 27-16 while the Spurs would go 32-13 for the teams to end up tied at 57-25.
It seems difficult and maybe I’m setting the bar too low. I’m just thinking the West seems more competitive 1-13 this year. Even GS and Minnesota could come back from their injuries and upset some teams. Minnesota has already beat the Jazz twice for example. The Lakers could drop 2 before the end of December.
by BlaseE on Dec 21, 2009 4:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The Spurs don’t care about the regular season. Also, I think your projections for the Lakers are too low. Meanwhile, Cuban is probably going to push his coaching staff to win as many RS games as possible. It’s what he does. I think we could lose the division, but win the championship – it’s happened before, and it could happen again. Plus, I think we’ll lose some winnable games without two of our best shooters.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
by Tim C. on Dec 21, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
::nods heads::
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
by CapHill on Dec 21, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How many do you have?
Consider the gun jumped
5 in 10
by jollyrogerwilco on Dec 21, 2009 8:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Only one, but the voices make me think more.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
by CapHill on Dec 21, 2009 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I always think more when I hear voices.
Consider the gun jumped
5 in 10
by jollyrogerwilco on Dec 21, 2009 10:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But apparently the voices do not help me with being coherent.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
by CapHill on Dec 22, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good thing too. I like the semi-herent version of CapHill that we’ve come to know and love.
Consider the gun jumped
5 in 10
by jollyrogerwilco on Dec 22, 2009 8:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody’s won nothin yet. The Lakers have started OK but they haven’t even played any of the elite teams yet. They have lost to Dallas, Houston & Utah so far so they are not unbeatable at this point.
On the plus side, they did survive OK being without Pau to start, Artest is working OK for them & they while they can lose focus they haven’t dropped a lot of games because of it.
The Lakers haven’t exactly faced the stiffest competition, but they got the job done, just like they should. Things look good for them but it is a long season and they got plenty to do before they reach their potential.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
by olf on Dec 21, 2009 5:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I voted “yes”. Let them have the goddam #1 seed, but also because they have been impressive to start the season. Could they still get better? Probably. Still, the Spurs know how to take care of themselves even with just a 2 or 3 seed.
by silverandblack_davis on Dec 21, 2009 6:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting, BlaseE. It’s still too early to know, really.
This time last year we were trying to get healthy and kept winning close games against mediocre teams thanks to wonderful 4th quarter execution. We were maxed out. This season I truly believe we have the potential to find a new gear. The record will follow.
Imagine if you’d written this in a comment, and very few people had read it? A pity, right? :P
Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
by LatinD on Dec 21, 2009 6:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Anyone on the game thread? I’m still at work…
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
by Tim C. on Dec 21, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Posted the same question on the preview. Can’t do it :)
by silverandblack_davis on Dec 21, 2009 6:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll try to slap something together.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
by CapHill on Dec 21, 2009 6:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I can help…?
Bone breaking? -340
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
by LatinD on Dec 21, 2009 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Me three. But too many cooks. . . . so just holler if you need me.
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
by Lauri on Dec 21, 2009 6:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
cant wait to see dejuan start getting 24 mpg.
Hes gonna bump his averages up to about 10 pts and 8 rebs per game
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
by alamobro on Dec 21, 2009 6:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
right now, i don’t really care much about the standings, i just want our guys to improve per game, especially our defense and be just healthy come April…
we fought for the 3rd seed last year BUT…..
by blackhawkconvoy on Dec 21, 2009 7:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If it comes down to being the 2 or 3, ehh, but I don’t like our guys to be the 8th seed with a scrappy OKC team at their heels.
by BlaseE on Dec 21, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Spurs have to be in the top 4 in the West if they are to have a realistic chance to go all the way. Certainly they would be able to win playoff series without home court but asking them to have to win 4 series in a row without home court is too much.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
by olf on Dec 21, 2009 11:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The Lakers fan makes sense.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 22, 2009 8:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
::looks outside for giant comet::
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
by Tim C. on Dec 22, 2009 8:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
by alamobro on Dec 22, 2009 9:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but he assumes no other team in the top 4 will get upset. The way the West is this year, two lower seeds could end up playing. Still though, the Spurs could use as good of a position as they can get.
by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 7:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I thought about that too. So I didn’t say it was impossible to go all the way without a top 4 seed. Plenty can and will happen between now and June.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
by olf on Dec 23, 2009 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, and a 4 seed is only slightly better than the 5
by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
UPDATE
Monday: Cavs and Magic both won meaning Phoenix got its 10th loss and the Jazz got their 12. Too awesome.
Tuesday: Blazers win in a tough one with Dallas. OKC loses a tough one in LA with Durantula fouled out for final minutes to lose by 3.
The Spurs are now tied with the Suns at 10 losses. Denver and Dallas both stand at 9 losses. Denver is playing Atlanta, Portland, and Dallas this week. Dallas has Memphis and Denver. This is looking outstandingly good!
Do you want to know who the Suns are playing the next 5 games??? They have Thunder, Clippers, @ Warriors (SEGABABA), Lakers, and then Boston. I’ll be rooting for them against the Lakers, but we win either way.
by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 8:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wow Blase. You are full of cheer and spreading it in heaps :D!
It really does befuddle me. How are the Suns tied with us on losses. :O It honestly feels like they have won every game I have seen on TV and they haven’t lost at home etc etc. While we have struggled to say the least. And both are tied in the loss column. Wow, there is an FSM giving hope!
by LionZion on Dec 23, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sacramento has a brutal upcoming schedule. Here are their next 10 games: Cleveland, Denver, Lakers, Philly, @ Lakers, Dallas (SEGABABA), Phoenix, @ Golden State, Denver (SEGABABA), and then Orlando. Only two on the road, but damn, that’s rough.
by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 9:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sac’s home game with the Lakers is the day after LA’s Christmas game vs. Cleveland. If there was ever a time for Sac to beat them that would be it.
Plus, while the Lakers have been winning, they have not really been playing too well. They did OK on the road recently but that was against MIL, NJN, DET, etc. Hardly murders row.
I am sure this is all way more than you wanted to know but the Lakers always seem surprised when teams they knocked out of the playoffs like DEN, HOU or UTH come at them with a lot of energy. LAL swept CLE last year so I expect CLE to bring more energy Friday.
The Lakers "Too big, too strong, too long, too good."
by olf on Dec 23, 2009 10:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This isn’t more than I want to know. This is exactly what I want to know.
One thing I meant to put up in the main article is that the Spurs schedule is very similar to the Lakers. I think most of us are aware of it, but its important to remember that when the Lakers stop playing easy games, we do too. The Lakers have been winning more tough games and getting the big shots/overtime wins that we aren’t. Could you imagine Bonner doing a running in off balance “shot” against Utah for the game winner with Kobe on his team???
by BlaseE on Dec 23, 2009 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Kobe would have him traded the next day.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
by Tim C. on Dec 23, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that’s why kobe is the fucking man. and i hate it.
"I will five all over this blog." - JRW
by Manuwar on Dec 23, 2009 5:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Colorado agrees with you.
Consider the gun jumped
5 in 10
by jollyrogerwilco on Dec 25, 2009 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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