The Great Debate: Who's to Blame
by Tim C. on Dec 17, 2009 10:43 PM CST
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There's been a lot of discussion lately, and a lot of finger-pointing from fans, centered around finding someone to blame for the Spurs' problems in this young season. While this would be a constructive excercise in some years, we can't seem to come to a consensus. However, I think the problem might have to do with more than just one player, and that it has gone beyond integrating new guys into the system. The problem is that the old tried-and-true Spurs are suffering. Or, at least, those not named Tim Duncan - which leads to a thought that is pretty troubling, but also seems like something that can be corrected easily.
Put simply, the Spurs[again, other than Tim Duncan] are lacking in fundamentals so far this season. Some of this could be because of new players learning the system, but when the Spurs' vets are doing it, that signals a lack of focus. These guys all know how to play smart, and make good plays, but they just aren't focused on it. And the new guys aren't really helping in that regard, either. I've seen signs of this changing lately, but some of it resurfaced again in the Warriors game last night.
The Fundamental Problem
Here are the 3 most glaring problems that the Spurs have faced so far this season:
Turnovers
Rebounding
Defense
These are 3 of the 4 fundamentals that champioship teams must be good at. The 4th is FT differential, which has never been a strength for the Spurs. The rebounding issue seems to be fixed now, through a concerted effort. The turnovers are really getting on our nerves, but these guys are lifelong professionals, and they should be able to fix that. The defense, however, is what really upsets me.
The Spurs have more strength, length and athleticism on the floor than I can remember them ever having, and their minutes are kept low, so everyone should be relatively fresh. But they're missing rotations and failing to close out on shooters every single game. To say that this is troubling is the understatement of the year. Last season, the defense improved dramatically after Pop called the team out publicly. I can only hope he does the same at some point this season. There is no reason for this Spurs team to be average on the defensive end. With all the talent on the roster, it's top 5 or bust. Last year, we started Roger Mason, Michael Finley and Matt Bonner, who are all terrible defensively, gave hem all a lot of minutes, and still ended up with the #9 defense in the league - this year's Spurs team is giving a lot more minutes to guys who are more than capable of good defense, but they just aren't executing. There is no excuse for that.
Another little note about turnovers: the turnover numbers are higher for the point guards(both of them) this year than in years past. A few weeks ago, I read that Pop is no longer calling plays, and he's just letting Parker and Hill call them instead. Does anyone else think that maybe Tony and George are too predictable with their play-calling, and that this could be one reason for our turnover woes?
These are all things that can be fixed through better concentration - let's hope the Spurs can at least do a better job of that.
Why There's Hope
Some of you may remember my citing basketball-reference.com and Hollinger's offense and defense ratings in a recent post. Well, I'm going to do it again.
Hollinger's formula currently has the Spurs at #6 among NBA teams in his power rankings.
The Simple Rating System(SRS) used on B-R also has us at #6 in the NBA, and third in the West. Our offense is #7 in the league, while our defense is at #11.
The Spurs are much better than their record. Now it's time they showed it. That means not being their own worst enemy anymore.
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I Blame Tim.
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
I blame SiMA and his washing machine pics.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
by CapHill on Dec 18, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Does anyone else think that maybe Tony and George are too predictable with their play-calling, and that this could be one reason for our turnover woes?
Most Manu fans would amen to that because both of them are not Manu (unpredictable).
Sparking!!!
by sparking!!! on Dec 18, 2009 12:05 AM CST up reply actions
SRS is supposed to take the strength of schedule in consideration. I’m not quite sure how it does that though. From what I’ve seen and heard, the Spurs have had a fairly easy schedule so far.
SIx isn’t a bad number (there’s that number again!), but that isn’t really where I’d want the Spurs to be.
I hope we do improve on D, and stop turning the effing ball over.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
The overall SoS isn’t too terrible, but our losses are all to good teams. Our “worst loss” is probably that @ Chicago one all the way back in October.
Losses (rank by win %, Denver and Dallas are both tied for 4th with Cleveland and Orlando):
@ Chi (24)
@ Utah (9)
@ Por (10)
OKC (14)
@Dal (4)
Utah (9)
Bos (1)
Den (4)
@ Utah (9)
@ Phx (8)
Chicago is our only loss to a team under .500. OKC is at .500. Last season, we lost 7 games to teams under .500 which is 8.5% of our 82 games. This season, we have 1 below .500 loss in 23 games for 4.3%. We should be good enough to beat good teams, but we can’t afford to lose to bad teams. We aren’t losing those games so far. Hopefully, this is some relief. The only problem is we’ve only beaten two teams over .500 (Dallas and Houston). Our next chances are Portland on Wednesday and then Miami on New Years Eve.
So essentially we are a middle of the pack team so far.
"If an expert says it can't be done, get another expert"
- DBG
by LasEspuelas on Dec 18, 2009 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
The Hawks have 4 of their 6 losses against sub .500 teams.
The Nuggets have 5 of their 7 losses against sub .500 teams. Their most recent 5 losses.
Cleveland and Dallas are both at 4 of their 7 losses being against sub .500 teams.
Phoenix is doing good with only 2 of their losses.
The Jazz have 3 and 2 of them are against bottom-dwellers, Minnesota.
My point is, no, we’re not middle of the pack, but rather on the cusp of kicking ass.
Another point of interest. Most games that come down to free throws/forced fouling are pushed to about 7 points if the team with the lead makes their free throws. If you are down 7 points, you can still come back and win in the last 2 or 3 minutes if things go your way. So I always define a close loss as 7 points or less. We’ve only been beaten by more than 7 three times, @ Utah (FIGABABA), @ Portland (SEGABABA), and @ Phoenix (FIGABABA). All three were road games against playoff teams and part of BABAs so our record is very misleading as to our actual level of play.
Damn, I’m bleeding optimism all over PTR today….
And you’re bringing facts. I’m glad that I have a reason to be optimistic.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
Pity that you need facts to remain positive. I see a black and gray bird on top of the (almost golden) brown tree in front of our yard, and I think to myself, “That could only mean that the Spurs are gonna win the chip this year.”
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 20, 2009 7:47 PM CST up reply actions
Kkay, being a pessimist for second, let’s say we don’t get better for awhile….
We have 23 games til the end of January. 14 of those are against teams under .500 which we are currently 12-1 against. 9 games are against teams .500 or better which we are currently 2-8 against. So if we continue as we have, that would be about 13-1 against the sub .500’s and 2-7 against the .500’s and above for a 15-8 record overall. Added to what we have now, that makes 28-18. That isn’t great, but we’d be heading in the right direction going into the RRT.
Now, if we can win 5 of our 9 tough games, we have 31-15 which puts us on pace for 2/3rd’s wins which is what we had last year which won us a second seed and a division championship. We don’t care about division championships, but it puts the record into perspective.
So:
Step 1: Continue to be a bully, but accept that we’ll drop one eventually in a tough road game (@ Toronto, @ Charlotte, @ NOOCH, @ Memphis on a FOGAFINI as possible contenders).
Step 2: Win at least 5 games of our next 9 against quality teams (Portland, Miami, Dallas, LA Lakers, @ OKC, Utah, Houston, Atlanta, and Denver) That’s right, only one of them is an away game and that is the only one that is a SEGABABA of the 9. That means 8 quality home games that aren’t SEGABABAs.
This is looking good.
Thanks, Blase. Nothing like cold hard facts of optimism to cheer me up.
by silverandblack_davis on Dec 18, 2009 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
Ugh, what is it with facts and optimism?
*See above
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 20, 2009 7:49 PM CST up reply actions
They look lazy on defense sometimes. I’m astonished by how far they tend to play off of people (zone or man) sometimes. They also don’t seem to be communicating on defense as much as they used to.
"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich
by Aaron "Hirschof" Preine on Dec 18, 2009 2:46 PM CST up reply actions
Defense is a joke many times – if they are going to be so bad on Defens3 they need to at least make more shots….
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on Dec 18, 2009 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
The lack of some JV savvy.
"Under the tutelage....of Randy Tutelage"
by Hipuks on Dec 18, 2009 1:07 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
no it's because we need our Findog back
Evey- "Are you a crazy person?"
V- "I'm quite sure they'll say so."
V for Vendetta, blowing your mind away since 2005.
I don’t think we can say that rebounding has been a problem. We are the third best rebounding team in the league behind Portland and Sacramento. I look at rebounding differential and rebounding percentage. We have slipped from last year in defensive rebounding percentage and are only fifth in the league.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/statistics?stat=teamstatreb&season=2010&seasontype=2&league=nba
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Dec 18, 2009 1:19 PM CST reply actions
Early on, we were terrible. I was using that as an example of how things can be fixed.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
I think we have had two bad games and two REALLY good games.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Dec 18, 2009 2:33 PM CST up reply actions
How on earth did you make it out of the sink hole alive?
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed. - CMoney
Funny you mention a sink hole. We basically had one of those in the front yard thanks to a water leak. But me and my shovel fought the good fight and I’m still breathing.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Dec 18, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions
I tell you what, every time Manu seems to drive in a half-court offense he gets stripped these days. I rewatched the Phoenix and Warriors games and it’s just unacceptable how many times it happens. Tony’s turnovers are also perplexing.
I’m don’t think it can all be attributed to a lack of focus. To me, it still looks like a lack of athleticism (or playmaking ability). It seems like the defense knows what we’re going to do before we do it! I know the Spurs pride themselves on crisp execution but have we gotten into a rut?
Furthering this point, I feel like this Spurs team with a bunch of jump shooters with a couple of slashers with little to no physicality to bully another team around? What is OUR rhythm? A finesse team that relies on a good 3 point shooting night, it appears. I haven’t hit the panic button yet but I am very concerned when we can’t close out a Don Nelson team with no legit center. Thank goodness for the upcoming schedule.
I’m with you, the games that Manu seems a bit slow or off, that’s when he seems to have the ball stripped on more than one occasion while driving to the basket. Unfortunately, the same can be said for Tony, the only difference is that Manu at least makes some game changing plays on defense by taking a charge, getting a steal or a block….we only wish TP would do the same.
Both of them have had some horrible passes during some of these games that contributed to our high turnovers. At least Manu’s passes are the playmaking type, where as Tony’s are the most basic of bounce/chest passes that don’t get to their intended target (unless of course he means to throw it to the fan on row 4 or the other team).
Manu has peaked this season twice at 4 turnovers. We won both games including our best win of the season, Dallas. He has had 3 turnovers 4 times. We are 3-1 in those games. Manu’s turnovers are clearly independent of our record unless you want to argue that low turnovers for Manu means a less aggressive Manu which means more chance to lose….(sigh)
Parker:
Peak: 7 TO’s against Charlotte, win
6 TO’s against Denver, loss (overall 1-1)
5 TO’s 3 times, 2-1 (overall 3-2)
4 TO’s 4 times, 3-1 (overall 6-3)
3 TO’s , 4 times, 2-2 (overall 8-5)
I’m not seeing the correlation I thought I would, but maybe that is a good thing….
Bonner is 0-3 in games with 2 turnovers which is his peak. He is not much better with 1 TO with a record of 5-6.
So if Bonner has at least one TO, we are 5-9. That’s not good….The only game we lost without Bonner making a TO was the first @ Utah. His line that night was 1-6 shooting for 3 points in 17 minutes. We’ve also lost 7 of 8 games where Bonner shot 40% or worse from the field. Against GS (in CA), he was 1-3 in 12 minutes and we won.
I think Bonner is the X-factor when he is in the lineup.
Blair could be another factor. First, in 8 of the 10 losses he played under his season averages in minutes which makes him look good. However, we’re 3-3 when he scores more than 10 points. We lost all 3 games where he contributed good points against playoff teams. His stats are confusing because of his inconsistent playing time.
Good stuff Blase.
On Blair, I don’t want to find a correlation :P. We should play him just for the fun of watching him pull a move out of nowhere.
Mainly, I was hoping to find some kind of combined stat for Tony+ Manu to tell us how much they have ‘sucked’ in tandem to result in all those losses and turonvers promised to be a good indicator, but apparently there seems to be no pattern. Also, the highest mins played guy would be RJ, but we need no stat to tell us he has been underwhelming, so if there is anything positive about him in our wins, that would be interesting. Again, bro, I appreciate all your work :)
The biggest factor so far has been opponent record. 13-2 against teams under .500 and 2-8 against teams above .500. OKC has fallen under .500 now. Milwaukee was over .500, 8-3 to be exact, when we beat them though. We aren’t losing the easier games, but there is something wrong against tough teams.
I think we have to look at those 8 games to see what the real issue is. The sad thing about those 8 games is that 3 of them are against Utah. Let’s say that Boozer and Williams are bad match-ups for us or something like that. Well, then maybe it is more Utah than the Spurs causing the losses. Let’s say Phoenix was on fire against us. We lost in Dallas in overtime. That game was very winnable. I’d hardly fault any one player or one stat for that. At Portland, Parker left after only playing 11 minutes injured and we fought back from a 29-14 first quarter to have a chance to win. We are down to 2 games as our sample size then.
Boston : First quarter score Celtics 25 Spurs 15…Dice (0), Bogans (0), RJ (6), Mason (0), Bonner (2), and Finley (4) combine for 12 points on 29 shots. If you didn’t just vomit in your mouth, I applaud you.
Denver: inexcusable blown lead at home…outrebounded by 7 (-6 offensive)
I don’t know. Maybe it is easier to gel against bad teams. Maybe you don’t have to gel against bad teams. Maybe the Hollinger and SRS ratings are right and we kick ass but things just aren’t turning into W’s. Whatever caused each loss whether it is the same thing or not, what’s done is done. We are 10 losses deep. I think this team is good enough though to bounce back and have a 10+ win streak. We’re also going to go 7-1 on the RRT. This team will be on top looking down in no time.
Maybe 8-0 on the RRT with LatinD’s mojo. We only need super mojo before the ASG. After it, Pacer, Sixers, and Pistons? Is anyone scared of any of those teams?
So its time for full on blown-out-of-proportion optimism. I agree with you. None of the losses above suggest anything particularly troubling other than various FSM factors combined for a loss.
And we are tied for losses with Phoenix. Feels so weird. Wow, we are actually playing good then.
Phoenix’s 10 Losses:
@ Orlando 22 points
@ Lakers 19
@ NOOCH 7
@ NY 27
@ Cleveland 17
@ Lakers 20
@ Dallas 1
@ Denver 6
@ Portland 3
Cleveland 18
Average loss: 14.0 points
Spurs average loss: 7.7 points, for cuss’s sake, our biggest loss is by 14 points, their average!!!
for reference:
Dallas, 9 losses, 8.2 point average loss, peak loss 16 points @ Memphis
Denver, 9 losses, 8.7 point average loss, peak loss 25 points @ Atlanta (6.6 average without peak), but their last 7 losses are to teams that are currently under .500…. First loss, @ Miami, second loss, @ Atlanta BABA then 7 bad losses in a row….
Anyone else seen fantastic mr fox? really good movie…they say cuss instead fuck the entire movie…i just saw it last night
Agree – no inside presence ’sides Timmy is causing all sorts of problems
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on Dec 18, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
I blame “Spursday.”
"We suck on 'D. Both individually and team-wise, we suck. We're pretty consistent that way. I don't know if I have an answer to that. If I did, we wouldn't suck quite so bad." - Popovich
by Aaron "Hirschof" Preine on Dec 18, 2009 2:30 PM CST reply actions
+1! “Spursday” has totally fucked our mojo
"There are two things in life that should never go together.....those two things are cheese and herpes..." - Santa Claus
by Cello the great on Dec 19, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
Clearly, I blame Bonner. He can’t defend or rebound, and he has started to drive instead of swinging the ball when defenders contest his three point shot, which has led to turnovers. There are your three problems wrapped into one ginger.
"GINOBILI!" -- Sir Charles
by Fred Silva on Dec 18, 2009 2:37 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
Ginger Hater!
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
by Joe deLarios on Dec 18, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
Okay, that’s it for this discussion, folks. Let’s all go home now.
by silverandblack_davis on Dec 18, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
ginger hater
Me and my wife curse and cringe when bonner comes in, I think every team in the league plans to attach the ginger every trip down the court. I not sure the layups and three point plays he gives up makes up for his random three’s, which usually come in games we are already winning.
i blame Eva for his shitty playing…………he needs to drop that biatch
"There are two things in life that should never go together.....those two things are cheese and herpes..." - Santa Claus
by Cello the great on Dec 19, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
…then give her my number.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 20, 2009 7:53 PM CST up reply actions
Who's to blame?
I concentrated on the play of Parker in the game against Indiana. Wow! Has his game turned sour. His penetrating drives have lost their speed, his shooting is and his turnovers are up. The box gives him only one, but I can think of two others that should have been added to his totals. Parker seems to be in a funk right now and who knows why? Ginobli’s game still lacks the reckless abandon that makes him such a favorite, but I think that is because he is worried about reinjuring himself. Now with Bonner and Finley both the 3-point shooting may suffer. Our bigs, led by Duncan are doing a pretty good job. I wonder who Pop will bring in for Bonner. Haislip probably, but maybe its time for us to see Mahinmi. Yawn must be in Pop’s doghouse or maybe he’s a planned surprise for the final stretch. Anyway, I,m rambling. The 4 for 17 shooting of Parker just isn’t going to hack it. Teams have figured out how to shut his half court dribble penetrations down. Ford made Parker look weak. Tony never has been a super defender, but of late it has been real bad. Teams are taking him to the cleaners and taking advantage of his defensive shortcomings. Hope he figures it out and makes the necessary adjustments. Hill continues to impress and Blair is doing a better job on defense. Now would be a good time to see what Haislip and Mahinmi can do. Go Spurs!
I agree, Spurs defense is always compromised whenever Parker is in the play because most of the times he can’t keep up and guys are forced to pick his man up and what he does is just watch the action as evidenced by the Indiana game. He tried to force the offense which led to Indiana gaining a big lead and Spurs only recovered when he’s not on the court because the defense remains solid. He really needs to work extremely hard on his game which I think he’s not doing.
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