Big Fourth?
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 6:26 AM CST
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RJ has disappointed me this season. I had such high hopes for him, that I still couldn't believe he's not lifting us to the upper echelon of NBA teams. The problem is, I don't really know why he's been disappointing me. People say he plays decent defense. People say he's been doing enough on offense. But somehow, I'm not convinced. And I don't know why. So like any irrational hatah, I made up a reason to dislike him.
For his career, RJ is putting up 17.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.9 apg, and 0.9 spg. Currently for the Spurs, his numbers are 13.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.6 apg, and 0.8 spg. Everything's down this year. I understand how these numbers would naturally be below his averages considering that he's not the first, second, or (at times) even third option on the Spurs. Add that to the fact that he's playing 3.5 minutes less than he normally does, and it's more than completely understandable. There are other scorers on the team, so he can't pad his point totals. There's Tim and Dice and Blair (and Bonner?) to contend with for rebounds. Since the offense doesn't normally run through him, he can't assist as much either (although he didn't pass too much before either). Plus he might be only the third best defender on the team too, so it's okay for his steals to go down (albeit by 0.1 spg). I don't really fault him for any of that.
Sorry, RJ. This will hurt too.
What might be causing my RJ-semi-hate, is his lack of aggressiveness in driving to the basket. At least that's what I observed. Of course, I watch games at 10 frames per minute, so I might be missing a thing or twenty, so I decided to investigate (i.e., "find and/or fabricate reasons why I'm right"). Apparently, this year, Jefferson averages only 4.3 free throw attempts per game. That's way down from his average of 6.1. The only time in his career that he attempted fewer free throws per game was in his rookie year. Sure it can be attributed to his lack of touches, but that isn't the case here. I looked at the ratio of his FTA to his FGA, and for his career, RJ averages 0.47 free throw attempts per shot. For the Spurs, his FTA:FGA ratio is down to 41% (0.413)--the lowest it has ever been. As a rookie, Jefferson took only 3.4 free throws per game, but attempted a mere 7.5 FGAs. That was when he couldn't draw too many fouls because he didn't have the ball too often. But this season, clearly--even relative to his touches--Princess Peanut just hasn't been taking the ball to the basket like he used to do.
Let's put it out there that RJ has been getting 10.4 FGA per game--2.5 attempts below his average. But those 10.4 times per game that the ball ends up in his hands, what does he do with those? Does he take them to the hoop and draw fouls? Or does he shoot jumpers, shying away from contact? I couldn't find a comprehensive Richard Jefferson shot chart (except for this, earlier in the season), so I couldn't say for sure. (82games.com seems to say that 65% of his attempts are jumpshots; I don't quite understand all the stats there). What I'm sure of though is that if only RJ drew fouls at his regular rate of 0.473 FTA/FGA, he would end up with 4.92 free throw attempts per game.
Not RJ's shot chart. But kinda looks like it. Maybe.
Another falling Dick J stat that has nothing to do with the amount of time the ball is in his hands is his FT%. RJ is a career 77.8% FT shooter. For the Spurs he makes only 67% of his freebies. If RJ indeed raises his FTA to 4.92 (instead of the current 4.3), AND if he makes 77.8% of those (instead of the current 67%), he will increase his scoring to a grand total of...14.23 ppg.
Okay, it's not much of a difference. But if the flaps of a butterfly's wings in the Amazon truly has an effect in the presence of hurricanes in the Pacific, then that 0.93 point addition that RJ will have brought will surely form ripples in the Spurs pond. Maybe that foul he draws causes an opposing big to be stuck in the bench. Maybe that FT he hits makes it a tied game instead of a 1-point deficit. I don't really know. But that's the point. No one will know unless RJ makes these little improvements.
This can cause a tsunami. Fear the flaps.
For a veteran professional basketball player like Richard Jefferson, it shouldn't be too hard to draw fouls as often as he always used to do. It shouldn't be too hard to make free throws at the percentage that he always used to shoot at.
In the end, I'm not sure if making those adjustments will leave me impressed. Anyway, RJ isn't paid $14M to please me. But neither is he paid, like I said in the comments section of another post, "more than DeJuan Blair, Keith Bogans, Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, Malik Hairston, George Hill, Roger Mason, and Theo Ratliff--COMBINED" to simply be mediocre. He needs to have an SRS rating of more than -0.9 (lower than Blair, Finley, Hill, Bonner and the Big Three). Per 36 minutes, even Hill and Blair outscore him (also, per 36 mins, Bogans and Bonner outrebound him).
The bottom line is this: if you're the second-highest paid player on the team, you can't have the eighth best PER. RJ isn't our leading scorer, rebounder, or passer. He doesn't get the most steals or blocks. He doesn't lead the team in FG%, 3P%, or FT%. He doesn't lead the team in FGMs and FGAs, nor in FTMs and FTAs. In fact, I can't find any single meaningful stat that Jefferson leads the team in. None. Not one.
But I exaggerate: there are in fact some categories where he leads the Spurs. Three, to be exact. Games played, games started, and minutes per game.
So basically, despite not really earning it, RJ's still getting the most playing time. Pop's playing him just because. Great. Just great.
We might as well trade him for a defensive specialist and some big bodies.
Oh well. I want to know if there are other Spurs fans like me who are disappointed with RJ. Cast your votes now.
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Impressive post..
I’m with you Rome on several issues.
This was posted around 2 weeks ago.
"It’s not about what my numbers should be," said Jefferson, who owns a career scoring average of 17.6 points. "I’ve been on teams where I’ve averaged 20 points and not made the playoffs. For me to take a step back and find my groove on a team that’s getting wins, I’d much rather have that."
……
And Jefferson is still in search of his elusive groove.
I’m concerned with his shyness complex up until now.
IMHO…a high flying, aggressive attack to the hoop, rim grabbing RJ >>>>>>> a jump shooting RJ.
1. Moar fouls for the opponent. One way to put the ball before the game is foul troubles (i.e. WCF 2002 game 6 (haha)).
2. Of course moar FTs (relax, Chip can handle this).
3. Easy baskets to make him PER friendly.
4. Raging Dunks!! Top 5 highlights will always be 1. Manu 2. RJ 3. RJ 4. RJ 5. Hmm….Parker.
5. Fear the Rage or you will get a facial from Rage. Opponents will be scared of him and starting to pass the ball to him, forcing turnovers. Even Kobe will also call him Bad Boy.
etc..etc
What i’ve mentioned is not hard for RJ to do consider he has the athleticism, the ears, the team mates, the $14M, and so on..bla bla bla.
Just add some couRAGE and mojo and ……… voila.
Talk on the future: RJ trade >> gasol trade.
but…
I believe (still) that our FO made the right decision. So don’t trade him just yet, Rome.
Give him time to get his mojo.
BTW.
I would like to see you make a RARS (Rome’s Arbitrary Rating System) for mini-ears someday.
Ginobili to Blair............the basket.....and 1.....arm.
I understand what you’re saying, romes, and I’ve been yelling about RJ being aggressive as much as the next person. However, last night’s game was encouraging. He was much better in the 2nd half with being aggressive on both the offensive and defensive ends. He still needs to be rebounding more and continue to step up the defensive pressure, but I’m seeing some improvement.
But Dice has regressed, and I can’t figure out why.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
See, I took flak for saying this in the “report cards” post.
Seriously, though…. RJ’s early season struggles are a big reason why his season averages are so low to this point. If he can keep up the kind of effort he’s been giving us in the last 5 games(is there any way to get a split of his stats for just those games?), I will be completely happy.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
MIN FG 3P FT STL BLK TO PF OFF DEFTOT AST PTS
29.0 32-60 6-12 8-13 0.8 0.2 2.2 2.4 1.0 3.4 4.4 2.2 15.6
Okay, so here are RJ’s numbers for his last 5 games. I found it on his espn profile. His numbers are pretty good, both in points, efficiency, and free throw percentage. He’s still not shooting enough free throws but everything else is decent. Specially considering how terrible he was in that Suns game. The Suns game could just be a hiccup, but it could also just be a psychological thing against a tough team, but RJ’s problem seems to be psychological from the beginning so at least he’s taking steps.
When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.
by the little o on Dec 17, 2009 3:38 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks for that. I think the whole team’s problem is psychological, which leads to a lack of fundamentals. I’ll have a post up later tonight about it.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
I repeat: There’s something systemtic to this, and Pop and the rest of the coaching crew need to get to the bottom of it and get it worked out, ASAP.
I have flying monkeys at my disposal, and I'm not afraid to use them.
I still think even those “impressive” numbers need improvement. FT% is still way below his average, something which I can’t really comprehend. The FT line didn’t move, they went back to the old ball (so you can’t blame the basketball), and you’re still not guarded. Psychological? Perhaps. But he wasn’t brought in to melt under the “pressure” of early regular season games. He should have fourteen million reasons to overcome whatever psychological difficulties he’s having. Unless it has something to do with his runaway groom act.
Shooting 60 FGs and only 13 FTs still doesn’t cut it for me. Maybe the refs think he’s a rookie and aren’t giving him the benefit of calls. Dunno.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 7:57 PM CST up reply actions
True, he should get to the line more, but he shown the inclination in the last few games to be more aggressive. In the Golden State game, it seemed like the light came on in the second half. I’m not happy with his play so far, but I at least see improvement over the last few weeks. The same can not be said about Tony, Manu and Dice.
Dice has totally disappeared and his minutes are down – those two could be related.
Tony is still struggling with explosiveness and turnovers. I think there’s a lingering health issue there.
Manu also has too many turnovers, but I kinda expect that from him. More disconcerting is his (lack of) defense. Unlike Tony (who I don’t expect to play stellar defense), Manu has consistently been out of position on defense and it doesn’t look like a health thing.
And Timmeh should quit turning the ball over so much in the paint. But he’s still the man.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
Yeah, Tony (somewhat), Dice, and Manu have been struggling too.
But RJ is new, has tiny ears, and doesn’t looke like Brian McKnight, so I pick on him.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions
Feel free to pick on RJ, especially since you have such good reasons. :-) Tony needs company in the irrational hatred doghouse.
I just like to point out that our problems this year are team-wide, including the coaching. Except for Blair and Hill. Blair can do no wrong (except for FTs) and Hill is just so easy on the eyes.
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
True, but DeBeast is still a rookie (and improving) and Hill is still improving (and easy on the eyes). The irrationality of sports fans is great, isn’t it?
Silly things do cease to be silly if they are done by sensible people in an impudent way. - Jane Austen
Yeah, I’m thinking “sports fan” has less to do with it than something else that I can’t quite put my finger on. Maybe SiMA can take care of this one.
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
you’re right, his numbers aren’t impressive. I guess I shouldn’t have called them pretty good, but I did downgrade it to decent later on.
I don’t like using the reason of him needing to play better because he’s making 14 million this year (and next). When we signed him, did we honestly think that he’d play like a 14 million dollar a year player? RJ is currently 28th in highest salaries in the NBA. Here are some players that are around him.
25. Joe Johnson Atlanta $14,976,754
26. Elton Brand Philadelphia $14,858,471
27. Predrag Stojakovic New Orleans $14,202,000
28. Richard Jefferson San Antonio $14,200,000
29. Larry Hughes New York $13,655,268
30. Chris Paul New Orleans $13,655,268
Judging the talent level of players based on salaries is tricky. There are a lot of stupid GM’s in the league that give huge contracts to mediocre players, and some young players haven’t gotten a max contract yet. If I were to give RJ a contract, I’d offer him somewhere like 7-8 million based solely on his previous seasons. Is he playing like a 7-8 million yet, no, but he’s not too far off, and improvement is being shown. I also remember that when we acquired him in the summer, he was going to be the fourth option in the team. Again, he’s not there yet, but he’s coming a long (slowly).
I think I’d be too radical of a change for the team to ask him to be the team’s leading, or second leading scorer. Know you didn’t say this, but just throwing it out there while I’m at it. I don’t know why I just defended Peanut. Perhaps because my expectations of him were low to begin with.
When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.
by the little o on Dec 17, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions
Perhaps because my expectations of him were low to begin with.
That might be it. I wanted him to be our Gasol so bad.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions
Ah, I can see why you’re hurting now.
When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.
by the little o on Dec 17, 2009 10:22 PM CST up reply actions
I admire your persistence in trying to find something not to like about RJ even though it was hard at first. I think you pretty much nailed it though. Aggressiveness is what he’s been lacking. What also frustrates me is that I’m constantly seeing something like this:
RJ has the ball on the perimeter.
Tim Duncan establishes position down low and RJ passes the ball to him, and waits.
RJ’s defender immediately focuses his attention on Duncan, who has yet to take a dribble, but doesn’t double him.
At this moment, when Peanut’s defender is scouting what Duncan is going to do, and but still before he doubles is when RJ should be cutting to the basket. He should be catching his opponent’s sleeping on him and slashing the second they take their eyes of him, but instead he chooses to give them a pillow. Manu, when he had a quicker first step would always do this, heck, Oberto made a living out of this. It’s just smart basketball, if the person guarding you is not having their eyes on you, not having a body on you, but still close to you, just move somewhere, you’re not going to get a better first step ahead of them than that. And Tim Duncan is such a willing passer. Duncan’s one of the best big man to give it to for the give-and-go. RJ just seems to be comfortable making Duncan do all the work, and get it only when he gets doubled, when he could be making Duncan’s and the offense’s life so much easier.
Sorry for the rant. Great post Romeo. As a peanut hater, I couldn’t have rec’d this more.
When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.
You make a good point. Maybe as he gets more used to playing with a dominant big for the first time in his career he’ll make those cuts. Or maybe Pop has told him to stay out there as Timmy’s outlet – I see other guys making that cut all the time, seemingly open, but Timmy doesn’t pass to them if he thinks he has the advantage. Who knows the reason, but I would love to see RJ cut in those situations, and for someone else to rotate over(Bogans?) to be Duncan’s outlet pass target..
The Spurs - now playing like sh*t again!
RJ is going to improve because ( seriously ) he cant possibly play worse than he has been.
I think RJ still has the ability to become that big third option on the starting squad. I agree that his problems are psychological. Once those easy shots start to fall for him his confidence will go up. Then they can start calling more plays for him.
I dont think this is a failed experiment.
...Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is forty five.
…because ( seriously ) he cant possibly play worse than he has been
This is sort of my feelings towards RJ. I know he can play better than that. What he’s giving—even these past five games—just isn’t enough for me. Maybe over the past five games, I can say he’s been playing decent (don’t lecture me on adjectives and adverbs). But I don’t think the FO got him to be decent. He can’t stay at decent.
I mean with the way things are going, if he had only 1 year left on his contract, you think he’ll get an extension with the way he’s playing. RJ, play like it’s your contract year, dammit.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
playing?
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 8:06 PM CST up reply actions
…because ( seriously ) he cant possibly play worse than he has been
This is sort of my feelings towards RJ. I know he can play better than that. What he’s giving—even these past five games—just isn’t enough for me. Maybe over the past five games, I can say he’s been playing decent (don’t lecture me on adjectives and adverbs). But I don’t think the FO got him to be decent. He can’t stay at decent.
I mean with the way things are going, if he had only 1 year left on his contract, you think he’ll get an extension with the way he’s playing. RJ, play like it’s your contract year, dammit.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 17, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
I honestly don’t know what to think. We all knew RJ was overpaid when he came to the team. I don’t want him to be the 2nd best player in the team – but he’d better be the 4th in a couple of months.
Good post, romes.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
I have been waving his standard for sometime now but said trade him. If Pop and Co. don’t want to use him as a primary scorer then he shouldn’t be here. Trade him and bring in some young, talented PF/C that can play alongside Timmy. Ultimately we have to find an answer to the ugly LA Beast and it’s not Timmy and Dyess in the paint…maybe Blair can fill the shoes but Odom/Gasol is a scary tandem in the paint + a Kobe running around outside. Trade him for Gasol’s little brother – that would be interesting………
"Mr. Gilmore deserves to be in the Basketball Hall of Fame damnit. Highest field goal percentage EVER"
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html
red = hot
blue = cold
grey = meh
Review: makes Superstar Money ( in this economy, anyways) expected to be allstar-caliber productive, produces average SF numbers, helps the team a little, but too little.
So far disappointing. Let’s check back after 41 games, because he will not be traded.
Oh and Little Gasol will not be available before his next contract is due in summer 2011. The guy makes less than $7 mil. for the next two years combined. Don’t see Memphis paying him market value then.
The Charles Barkley 2009/10 Ancestors Count: 3 Grandmothers , 0 Mother Alltime: Reg. 26-0 Playoffs 7-0
"There were arms coming from everywhere, and I knew they weren’t going for the ball," Miller said. "I was just trying to get [the shot] up before they called some crap like ‘on the ground.’ "
"What do you want me to do?" Wright asked. "Do you want me to Derek Fisher him?"
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Sheed for $30k: "They've got to know that he's a [darn] flopper. That's all Turkododo do."
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EWING: [Rubbing belly] "I gotta go work out tonight. I'm full. You got a treadmill for me?"
YAO: " Leave your car keys here and run home. I'll give you the keys tomorrow."
I have only one question. Just one, its really to Pop I suppose.
Why oh why are we not incorporating lob passes to RJ by Tony off p&rs, or by Timmy from his usual spot as an additional wrinkle opponents have to fear, or off RAGE running through screen stacks with somebody lobbing it from the 3pt line. This seems to be a strength for RJ. Unless Pop is trying to be CIA Pop, he should obviously be including this in our offense a bit. At least an attempt at such a thing would keep RJ’s defender more honest.
RJ posting up has given mixed results. When his shotting is falling, its very efficient. When its not, there is no other offensive advantage.
Pop already has his hands full in trying to get RJ to keep shotting. It’s a new offensive scheme that Pop stole while in Russia, and it’s taking RJ a while to master it.
When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.
by the little o on Dec 22, 2009 3:46 PM CST up reply actions
Ha! But honestly I sometimes think Pop’s just being a bit stubborn. When we got RJ, Pop said he liked that he can post up the 3. Of course, he wants to do just that now. I don’t think it’s working (posting up RJ). I’d prefer RJ in iso or when cutting to the basket, or perhaps smal ball p&r with Tony/Hill and RJ.
"Yes, it's important that I have good numbers, and I'm well-respected as a player. But I think it's more important that I'm respected as a man." - Some Tall Guy Who Wore #50
by theonlyromeo on Dec 22, 2009 8:37 PM CST up reply actions
his..
his also disappointing me but rj can’t pull 20,cuz manu is there so as td and of course offense number 1 tony parker!,for me why rj is disappointing is that,his not going to the cup like he supposed to do,it means his too quite,his not explosive,yes he dunks but i still find him quiet and you’ll be surprised,“oh his playing”.what i want for rj is defense just play gr8 d and even if u score 10 as long as ur opponents fg attmpt is like 5-20(hahaha)then i’ll love you.i dnt want you to be vince carter i just want defense from you,and go to the cup,get the ft and pls convert them if u dnt its ok we understand that ur human,but pls go to the hole like blair and tp and maybe td(shooting j’s off the glass is his work of art) sometimes,let the 3’s and j’s up to the other guys.and pls score some 20+ or 30+ games for us.but if the big 4 ave all 20ppg and dice 12 or 10 off the bench,why not,and blair a double double of 12 and 10 ppg, and hill 10 or 12 ppg, why not.but their human so just pray that they win whatever score they have.as long as there’s chemistry,teamwork and most of all defense,so even if they just score 2pts and 0 for their opponent and they win,i would love that.
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