The Lakers are above the other Powers. The others are a notch below.

With insight like that, I don’t know why I’m not in the big time.

Its weird for me to think of us realistically finishing with that record (which I think is pretty spot on) and getting 3 or 4 in the West, while right now we can seriously argue that we’re the second best in the conference.

Without looking at our schedule, I would have put us a few games better at the end of the season.

I would like to see what other teams predicted record are. Do Denver and Portland have a schedule touch as ours? But I suppose we also have to take into account that Portland especially is younger and has a better chance winning a segababa than us.
Regardless of what happens, the Spurs usually play pretty good on the road in the playoffs, so hopefully the seeding won’t even matter so much.

I think we crack 60. The schedule will get tough as the Spurs fall into their rhythm.

I had to google FOGAFINI :D

If I had skipped the article and look directly at the W-L prediction I would have thought you were being very pessimistic. Since I read the article I only think you are being slightly negative but very realistic. Although I do agree with dropping winnable games every now and then, the added depth of this roster keeps us from losing as many of those as we used to. We have too much talent and energy guys to have too many off nights, even when considering the tough schedule. Specially to leftovers and patsies.

Wow…really, what a good post! I voted 58-60. I have to see us better then the 54 that we won last year with the injuries and age. The upgrades have to make us better than that. I’m sure there will be a few surprise losses in the mix * coughs * OKC twice * coughs *, and a few surprise victories, also like last year (Lakers, Celtics, nearly beating the Thuggets with the subs).

60+ with a minimal playbook and Manu, Tim, Finley, Ratliff, RJ and Parker all resting occasional games. Last year our team went through so much and were at 54 wins. We could have pushed sixty last year if just Manu had been healthy, ignoring Duncan and Parker’s missed games. Then in the offseason, we cut/trade/put on ice drift Clankdoka, KT, Oberto, Vaughn, Gooden, and Bowen for Blair, Bogans, RJ, Dice, and Ratliff. We also have George Hill, Roger Mason, and Hairston in their second years with the team. Bonner and Mason will be returned to a more natural position of spread the floor big and shooting guard. I think all of this adds up to some serious domination. Even if Manu and Duncan want to rest against a leftover or patsy, Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, RJ, Dice, Blair, Hill, and Ratliff are still a deep rotation for Pop to win the game with and not need Parker to score 55. Mahinmi and Haislip have potential to progress throughout the season and get some minutes in these type of situations. They are both athletic enough to make a difference in a game.

I see us getting the 2 seed depending on how many wins that takes. The better players might get a little more run in those tougher games towards the end of the season if we’re neck and neck with say, Portland. I know Pop says he doesn’t care about seeding or home court but if we’re within a game on either side of the 2/3 seed, I think logic will come through and we’ll play just a little harder to be second only to the Lakers, who will probably win 60+ and be 5 or so ahead of us. In other words, uncatchable.

Also, I would trade Detroit and Chicago between Leftovers and Patsies. Chicago is on the rise and will be better off without Gordon. Detroit is on the decline because they cashed in their cap for two undersized, defensively inadequate role players(Gordon, Villanueva), one has-been defensive presence(Wallace), and one would-be big man (Chris Willcox).

Believe me, I follow both of these teams because friends of mine are fans. Barring injuries, Chicago will be right in the thick of the bottom half of the East.

I really think this year’s team will be awesome, and they’ll get off to an historic start, something like 40-6 (as opposed to your 33-13 prediction). I look for 60+ wins, with an outside chance that they jell late in the season and just start blowing even good teams away during the toughest stretch of games, before easing off the gas a little and the end and finishing with 65+ wins.

I don’t think they’ll lose games to lottery teams this year as they have been prone to in the last few years. The problem they’d run into is that if Tony or Manu weren’t getting it done that night, there was no one else to rely on. Now, even if those two don’t show, RJ, George Hill, and Blair all could provide a spark to turn those close losses against bad teams into closer-than-expected wins.

That said, even with that high number of wins, I could the good guys finishing second in the West to a 68-14 Lakers team.

The first post I did at PtR was … a long rambling mess. … I’m glad I can’t find a copy of it.

Those of you who know me well won’t have any difficulty in imagining that, for me, ATS posting the above quote is the equivalent of a matador waving a red flag in front of a bull. And, no, I don’t care whether bulls are colorblind or not. I’m sure they can smell the dye they use on the flags — or something. And I also care not that the bulls usually lose. Sometimes the bull gets his own back.

So, without more ado, here is the post that the bossman couldn’t find.

And, Wayne, I think you’re being hard on yourself. It’s not that bad.

Reading the post, I cannot find any holes in your analysis. I think 54-26 will be very satisfying for the Spurs come next Spring.
I do have a nagging concern, lurking in the back of my mind. When I turn around to address it, it slides off to the side again. There, yet not there.
Our defense, especially for the second team. Our opponents in the pre-season averaged a little over 98 points. We scored over 101 points. Sounds like a run-and-gun squad to me. I agree, our second unit can play with most of the teams in the league, by playing, I mean out scoring them. But I am concerned that the scoring will also include little or no defense.
I know all the ‘reasons’ this has happened…lack of veterans playing, rookies, etc. But both teams were playing that kind of players. If we had a defense, it should have shown up at least some of the time.
Am I worrying needlessly? (please tell me YES) Or is this nagging something that should be dragged out of the dark recesses and shown to the light of day

The regular season needs to start, I can’t go through so many different emotions. I read something from an optimist and I feel like there’s no way we don’t win. And then I read something from a realist and see how difficult it is and I come crashing down off that high.

57 to 60+

The roster upgrade, plus a much better start to this season than last year. That should be enough for at least 3 wins. If they pan out how we expect them too I think we can get 60 wins easy.

62-20

The Spurs will win at least 60 season and halfway give a crap all the while. I got the gang at 62-20 and a 16-6 romp through the postseason. Oh yeah.

Maybe it’s not so bad after all. The easy beginning is good for the rookies and new players to get used to the Spurs system without costing us too many games, and also for Manu to get into his playing rhythm. Perhaps the Spurs will be able to practice more, which would be invaluable when it comes to defense.

By the time the schedule gets tough I agree it’s when we should be resting our players, but by that time the rotation should be more or less settled and we can see what this team can really do, and it would be a challenge for the rookies which could maybe prepare them for the playoffs, if they get to play at all.

This team has a lot of new players and it will take a wHile for everything to mesh together, so a relatively easy start I think it’s good for the team in the long run.

Right now, I’m not thinking about the record. For this season, I just want my 10-game winning streak (or longer) that I miss from the Spurs. Those things help me calm down a bit. Is that too much to ask?

excellent analysis ATS. My initial prediction was also 56 wins, but I was amazined at how thorough you breakdown was, while producing comparable results. The more I think about it though, I think that this team could probably win 58 games. While this is a much better team than last year’s team, on must also remember that last season’s spurs outperformed in terms of their record. I don’t exactly know how many games ginobili, parker, and duncan missed, but even when you set aside the injuries for a bit, we still won a lot of really close games, usually by only a point or two. Now, the obvious reason is that our team is mentally tough and makes less mistakes than other teams in close games. I however, hate to say that a small part of those wins was also due to a little bit of luck. It seemed to me like the Spurs won every game decided by one shot, and I don’t think we’ll be as fortunate this year if that is the case. Back to injuries, they happen, they will always happen, so we’ll also lose a few games due to that this year as well.
Anyways, i really liked this approach of yours. Very nice ATS. You’re first post wasn’t bad either.

I think the Key is to finish at least second in the west. I think we need the home court for at least 2 rounds, because in those rounds we probably are going to play the young teams (Thunder, Blazers, Jazz and hornets)and those teams are a different beast when they play at home. I think that was the main reason we lost in 08, the Hornet series really kill us, he had nothing left against the lakers.I think if we had the home court, that series would had been over in 5 -6 games, and had something left to play the lakers.

I think that we are going to win 58-60 game and finish second in the west.