The More The Spurs Change, The More They Stay The Same
Hey there.
How ya doin?
As most of you know, I spend most of my time covering football these days (and boy did my Iggles crap all over themselves at Oakland last Sunday), but seeing as how I couldn't possibly be any more excited about our Spurs starting things up for real on Wednesday against CP3* and the rest of the delightfully inadequate Hornets, I thought I'd venture over to Deadspin's favorite new basketball blog and write up a little preview.
Personally, I don't understand why everyone's making such a big deal about Wayne giving Manu some alfajores, when nobody made a peep about him giving Tony a wicked case of the clap.
Can someone help me out with that?
Anyway, here's your preview, after the jump.
* To me the "CP" in CP3 doesn't stand for "Chris Paul" but seeing as how this is a family blog, decorum prevents me from elaborating.
Speaking of jumping, I hear our Spurs are gonna try employing this radical strategy in certain portions of games this year, so I'm psyched. The team steadfastly refused to leave their feet the past two seasons for reasons unknown to us mere mortals. Maybe they thought it would be unsporting, or perhaps they were skeptical about the Earth's gravitational pull and feared floating away into nothingness.
Either way, the team traded for Richard Jefferson and drafted DeJuan Blair, so there is a chance, however slight, that they'll appear on the highlight shows for something besides nifty bounce passes or last second three pointers from gentlemen who spend the first 47:58 of games doing every foolhardy thing in their power to necessitate last second three pointers.
(I make these jokes now, about the incumbent Spurs being so ground-bound and unathletic, but we all know I'm going to completely lose my shit every time Manu dunks this year, just indulge me).
So what, besides the jumping, stands out about this team?
The depth definitely. There's a little bit of everything. Young guys and vets, bigmen and smalls, speedsters and slowpokes, shooters and bangers, and a couple of completely useless washed-up graybeards, thrown in just for fun.
The whole stew is eerily similar to the '02-03 squad, isn't it?
Yet it's that title team that we have the toughest time in summing up in a nutshell and attaching an identity to.
The '99 team was easily the most defensive and dominant. Really, with a still-useful Robinson and in his athletic prime Duncan, they were an impenetrable juggernaut. They clogged up the inside so well that they managed to go 15-2 in the playoffs with a starting backcourt of Avery Johnson and Mario Elie, and with whodat Jaren Jackson just so happening to have the best month of his life.
While it was gratifying to see the Spurs (and by extension Robinson) finally get their 'chip, there was something cold and mechanical about them. They won every game the exact same way: brutally dominating the paint on both ends and a hail of threes.
It wasn't boring, but it became so one-sided and clinical that it just wasn't as fun as we'd hoped.
The '04-05 club was the most improvisational and dynamic. You just never knew what they were going to do next, but it was always a thrill ride, and when the ball was in Manu's hands it was almost Youtube-worthy.
With this team it was always about the subtle things, the stuff the casual fans didn't notice. Like the way the team responded when Nazr Mohammed was acquired for Malik Rose, or those few minutes every night when we got the unfiltered awesomeness of The Pale Triangle with The Sickness, Bones, and The Bean Burrito.
Most people thought the late-season ankle injury to Duncan would doom the team, but instead it brought everyone closer and provided Tony and Manu with the chance to make an evolutionary leap in their development. Tim was never 100% the rest of the way those playoffs, but he didn't have to be. In fact, it was more fun that he wasn't. It would've been too easy otherwise.
What I really loved about the '04-05 team was the way they could clone themselves into playing the way their opponents played those playoffs, only better. They out-intimidated the Thuggets, out-chemistried the Sonics, outscored the Suns, and outslugged the Pistons. Big and bad Detroit, the defending champs, had them down nine points in the third quarter of Game 7, and still this team wouldn't fold.
The '06-07 edition played with the most edge and were the most defiant. They weren't the most talented bunch, but they had a core of old school veterans who absolutely would kill you to win. They didn't care about style points, or critics, or anything really. They were just a collection of pissed off guys, incensed about how the '05-06 season ended and livid that a fraud one-man team like the Heat won that year.
That Spurs team deserved to have their vengeance against the Mavs, but Dallas didn't live up to their end of the bargain. Instead they had to deal with the soft, whiny Suns and that stupid controversy with Horry's hipcheck to Steve Nash. The more that people cried foul, the grittier the veterans played. It's hardly surprising that they ended the playoffs on a 10-1 run, with The Big Three so concerned about LeBrick that they practically celebrated their championship during the waning moments of Game 5 against Utah.
Again though, we come back to 02'-03. What was that team's identity? Sure, we all remember Robinson riding off into the sunset with his second ring, and Duncan being at the peak of his powers, but for a team that featured four future Hall-of-Famers, weren't they somewhat underwhelming?
I mean think about it. Outside of Game 6 at LA, when they toppled the Shaq-Kobe dynasty (which was spectacularly referee-aided, mind you) do any of us remember a playoff game that team dominated from beginning to end?
Or do we remember the chokes, the near-chokes, and the miracles?
We blew Game 1 in the first round to the Suns on a last second Starbury prayer (although losing the first playoff game is a great omen, we would discover in later years).
We came from ahead to lose Game 4 at LA, and nearly upchucked a 25-point lead against them - at home - in Game 5; a game we only escaped when dear friend RoHo clanked a wide open three at the buzzer.
We gave away Game 1 of the Conference Finals to the Mavs when Dallas shot something like 61-for-62 on free throws that game and needed Steve Kerr to get unconscious to pull out Game 6.
Kerr would have another hot game to pull out Game 5 of the Finals and Speedy Claxton had to bail Tony's butt in Games 5 and 6.
Even for all of Tim's dominance in that clincher, with that 21-20-10-8 stat line, we still had to come back from double digits down in the final six minutes to beat the frickin' Nets.
That team, as loaded as it was on paper, never quite meshed together correctly and was never as good as the sum of its parts. Robinson, Ferry, Smith, Kerr and Willis were all too old. Manu and Tony were too young. Batshit crazy Stephen Jackson was batshit crazy Stephen Jackson. Really the only guys who were in their primes were Duncan and Rose.
Still, on paper they were damn good, and no matter how messy they made it look, they did win it all at the end, and that's what it's all about, right? Even if they only managed to put it all together for a quarter here and six minutes there, they had those moments of brilliance that was enough to carry them through.
While I thoroughly enjoyed Simmons' NBA preview (take a guess why), I think he's being a bit of a pollyanna in predicting us to run roughshod over the league from beginning to end. When we first assembled the roster that we have, I recall that I made similar boasts, but I've now calmed down and have tempered my expectations a bit.
Oh sure, I still think we're going to win the whole thing, but Pop will take it too easy with Tim and Manu for the first half of the season, and he'll experiment with so many different lineups that we're going to lose a few winable games here and there. It's going to take the team a while to find its chemistry, and it might never fully happen the way Pop constantly shuffles roles and rotations.
The good news is we don't need everyone to be clicking on all cylinders. That '02-03 team didn't and neither will this one. We simply need good health at the right time, that's it. This team is so deep that come the postseason they will find a different hero every night, just like those Spurs did.
It's the journey, not the destination, and while the road won't be very smooth for us, I think we're all going to be in for one hell of an interesting ride.
As for direct comparisons, try these on for size...
You have your jump shooting, defense-first center on his last legs.
Your undersized rebounder that thinks he's a bit better than he actually is.
The three point specialist who most definitely is NOT a point guard.
The has-been swingman who needs to be chained to the bench for his own good.
The grandfatherly backup center you don't want to mess with.
The athletic swingman whom you don't trust under any circumstances.
Your tall white stiff who does nothing but shoot threes and amuse the media.
The backup point guard I will like more than Tony Parker because he'll actually pass it to Manu.
The token "defensive specialist" that Pop will overuse.
The foreign project bigman who will never play.
The young wing who will never play.
The parts of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will still be played by Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili though, and that's mostly a good thing, because at the end of the day we're still gonna need them to carry the freight.
Five quickie predictions:
5) Forget all the "back to defense" mumbo jumbo from Pop. This will be an offensive team. Outside of Bogans their entire roster plays better on offense than defense. They won't be the '04-05 Suns, but they should routinely crack the 100-point barrier.
4) Unlike past shooters, Richard Jefferson will not struggle or be gun-shy in his first season on the Spurs. He's never been more open in his life than he will be this season, and unlike Finley and Barry, he's coming aboard close to his prime.
3) Michael Finley, Roger Mason and Matt Bonner will all play more minutes than we want them to, while DeJuan Blair, Malik Hairston and Ian Mahinmi will play less. This, more than anything, is the main reason I'm glad I won't be writing about the Spurs regularly. There is no way I wouldn't be banned if I did.
2) Manu Ginobili will finish only fourth on the team in scoring, but he'll set a career high in assists. I'm thinking about 12.3 points per game, with 4.9 dimes. He's never had this many guys on the second unit to pass to before. He'll pick-and-roll second units to death.
I think Ginobili is going to thrive in his role as what chef Anthony Bourdain would call a "System D" or a Debrouillard. If he was a TV star he'd be MacGyver. If he was British, he'd be Bond. James Bond. If he was an Autobot, he'd be Jazz. He'll be the jack-of-all-trades that will do whatever needs to be done on any given night and only look for his own offense if the team needs it late. Should be a fun year for him.
1. And that last prediction goes hand-in-hand with this one. The Spurs will hang with the good teams with their starting unit, either leading or trailing by four points in every "shift." But when the teams turn to their respective benches for those last two minutes of 1st/3rd quarters and the first four minutes of 2nd/4th quarters however, the Spurs will blow games wide open with their second unit, by far the deepest in the league. We're just going to come after teams in waves.
We won't have the Lakers dynasty to overthrow this time, but instead something even more obnoxious and insidious. The past two years the star power and media appeal of the Lakers-Celtics-Cavs triumvirate has overtaken the NBA. It's like there are no other teams out there in ESPN land besides these three and they monopolize all the coverage and attention.
For the good of the league our humble Spurs will have to restore balance and order. I will not be held hostage to another season of Kobe-LeBron puppet commercials.
We are the team of the decade dammit and last I checked the decade isn't over. There's no way in hell that we can stand for Kobe or Shaq getting a fifth ring before Duncan does, let alone LeBron getting one period.
And we certainly can't let the Celtics, a team that with the pairing of KG and 'Sheed will shatter the "The Most Times Cameras Accidentally Showed Athletes On One Team Yelling 'Motherfucker' in One Season" record by early January, win it either. I mean, think of the children people. The children!
I can't wait 'til June when every hack will be moaning about how boring the Spurs are while RJ alley-oops another no-look pass from Ginobili, Parker whirls his way through three people before dishing it to Dice, and Blair slams home a loose ball after a Hill steal.
We're not finished just yet.
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loe the predictions except
except for blair’s minutes…he has proven that 16 minutes is a doubl double minute for him,so iguess to be one of the elite rookies and to prove that the spurs do really trust in him,i think he’ll play 20-24 minutes.period…i would love to see him top griffin and curry(hich i love)to get his first award as a rookie of the year and george hill will ave 10-14 points 3 dimes 2 rbs 1 stl .05 block 38-42% 3pt% and 53% fg,as most improved…tp will have 53-55%…imagine pg’s shooting 52-55% from the floor combined?thats hell…period!
tp_09..I wouldnt be surprised to see Blair playing 20 mpg in March and beyond, but before then? Maybe 16 a night max.
The boogie man checks his closet for DeJuan Blair before he goes to sleep !
Nice comparisons. The similarities are definitely there. Though I would like to suggest that our 2010 counterparts have the goods on the 2003 guys.
Id like to think this team has the potential to return to the top tier two or three best defensive teams in the league, and coupled with theyre newfound offensive potency, challenge for the ever important margin of victory stat. I seriously would not be surprised to see 60 plus wins here. But ill settle for 57 and the chip.
The boogie man checks his closet for DeJuan Blair before he goes to sleep !
Aaah, Michael, sometimes I forget how good you are at this. This made my weekend, and will put a smile on my face until tipoff against the Hornets.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders
I can’t wait ’til June when every hack will be moaning about how boring the Spurs are while RJ alley-oops another no-look pass from Ginobili, Parker whirls his way through three people before dishing it to Dice, and Blair slams home a loose ball after a Hill steal.
A-goddam-men.
Hooray! Stampler sighting!
WWTD?
Thanks for this. Just as awesome as ever.
btw, is it creepy that Theo even wears the same number as Willis?
9.20.21.24.34
ACLs are like crutches. They’re only for the weaklings who can’t get along without them. -jollyrogerwilco
I thoroughly agree about the second unit. It should be just the opposite of last year. Those guys will be blowing people out.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Oct 24, 2009 1:34 PM CDT reply actions
I think you’re the only person around here who can write a long ass article and make it a breeze to read through. Although you didn’t mention Michael Vick even once. Cool analysis though, I’m very excited to see what this team can do and how Pop can piss us off by not playing the rookies enough.
If you haven't lived with a squirrel, you haven't lived. - Bob Ross
Yeah, if we were pissed about Hill not getting enough time last year, Pop’s going to make us borderline homicidal with Blair.
9.20.21.24.34
ACLs are like crutches. They’re only for the weaklings who can’t get along without them. -jollyrogerwilco
Us? Borderline homicidal?
In order to keep this from occurring, I’ve decided to set the bar exceedingly low.
I don’t think Blair will get anything more than 5 min a game. Pop can’t possibly allow him to play any more than that.
There! Now I’ll just spend the rest of the afternoon (leading up to Machida/Rua) reciting this over and over to myself until I’m completely brainwashed. Then, if GrizzlyBlair gets anything more than that, I’ll be ecstatic.
If not, then I didn’t expect him to play more, and I’ll avoid being driven to killing someone out of the anger built up from not seeing DeBeast unleashed.
Consider the gun jumped
5 in 10
Excellent suggestion. I have conditioned my mind in the same manner -
Pop: “DeBeast will be unleashed on the third because he is my Precious”.
To Manu belongs 999 names. 1,000 – 1. One must keep the names hidden in the deep recesses of the soul. Only by uttering the names in utter reverence and sheer terror shall one experience sublime ecstasy. And as one meditates upon each divine name, one ascends into a higher state of enlightenment. Upon reaching the 999th level, one enters Nirvana and comes into the presence of the Immortal One and gorges on alfajores to your heart’s content.
by 'DSilverlining on Oct 24, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions
the way I look at is this: The better the team plays in quarters 1-3, the more Blair will play in the fourth. I think initially he’ll just be a garbage time guy until he proves he deserves more.
I do think both he and Hairston will be rotation guys in SEGABABAS though, at the expense of Tim, Manu, and Dice.
Give a man a chicken and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to chicken and he'll call you crazy and question your command of the English language.
by Aaronstampler on Oct 24, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Definitely agree with you about the defense. The guys that will be playing most of the minutes have either lost a step defensively or just aren’t elite defenders to start with.
HOWEVER, I do think we will have close to a 10 point avg margin of victory over the season with so many crappy teams. We obviously can’t defend like when we only gave up 84 pts/game in 03-04 and I think we will give up roughly 90 a game +/- 2. So does that leave us scoring a 100 a game? That would be weird.
Also going with your jack-of-all-trades theory on Many, do you think HE might be our defensive stopper this year? He is an excellent and active defender and has less of a load offensively. Plus he will play more minutes than Bogans or Hill.
On defensive stoppers: that’s the main purpose of having Bogans on the team. Since Bruce won’t be around, it’s possible that Bogans will have additional value in tutoring a guy like Hairston or Hill on the ways of defense. I’d still rather have Bruce, but learning from Bogans can’t hurt those guys. And when the team is ahead and needs a stop at the end of a game, I fully expect Bogans to be on the court for that as well.
The best thing about this roster is its overall versatility: Pop can put a high-powered scoring unit on the floor if they need it(Parker/Manu/RJ/Blair/Duncan), or a lockdown defensive unit(Hill/Bogans/RJ/Duncan/Ratliff), or anything in between. Whatever the situation dictates, Pop has options that will fit. In that sense, I feel you could make a strong comparison to the 04-05 Spurs as well, but I still like Stampler’s comparison to 02-03 better.
9.20.21.24.34
ACLs are like crutches. They’re only for the weaklings who can’t get along without them. -jollyrogerwilco
Except Bogans isn’t a starter like Bruce was and I don’t think he’ll play even 20 mins a game. Plus he’s undersized for guarding SFs. So what then?
I didn’t say he would guard SF’s or play 20 minutes a game. If that was the case, I can assure you he would be making more than the league minimum. But for clairfication:
Most of the contending teams have very good players at both guard positions, and Hill is too small to realistically guard 2’s. Bogans is a situational defender at SG only(if the Spurs are up at the end of a close game), but he can definitely help mentor a guy like Hairston, who has the bulk and wingspan to guard most SF’s. We all saw how Bruce aided in Hill’s development last season, even though they played completely different positions – I’m just hoping for some similar work between Bogans and Hairston.
9.20.21.24.34
ACLs are like crutches. They’re only for the weaklings who can’t get along without them. -jollyrogerwilco
I half object to two statements.
One, that Hill can’t realistically guard 2’s. Hill can easily guard the Jason Terry’s of the 2 guard world. Barbosa, Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry, Eric Gordon, Brandon Roy, James Harden, Rudy Mayo, etc. A lot of those guys are only 6-4 or 6-5. George can guard them. I might be wrong on Roy there, btw. There are, of course, others that could shoot over him. One I’ll be interested in seeing how he matches up with is Kevin Martin.
Two, that Bogans is a SG defender and Hairston is a SF defender. Hairston is an inch taller and 5 pounds heavier. I don’t see those as being significantly different enough to categorize them that strictly.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Oct 25, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Hairston has a 6’ 9" wingspan. I’m not saying he’s going to be strictly a SF defender, just that he has the tools to guard most SF’s(Artest and Lebron are exceptions to that rule, for example). It’s not an ideal situation, but it’s a possibility. An even if the Spurs want to use Hairston strictly as a SG in the future, he can still learn a ton from K-Bo.
9.20.21.24.34
ACLs are like crutches. They’re only for the weaklings who can’t get along without them. -jollyrogerwilco
Rudy Mayo? I am guessing that is O.J. Mayo, but maybe you cleverly combined him with Rudy Gay, a la Bennifer, Brangelina, etc., to refer to both of them. But Rudy Gay is not in the same category as Monta and Gorden and JET, etc., as small scoring guards.
Yeah, OJ Mayo. He’s 6’ 4". So I’d put him in that group.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Oct 27, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Fascinating correlations to the 02-03 team. I cannot believe I never thought of it before, but Bonner really is Danny Ferry re-incarnated.
One thing I hear in the media about SA is “will everyone get enough shots?” I suspect strongly that a whole lot of winning (and the fact that when RJ gets a shot, it’s an open one) is going go a long way toward building chemistry and avoiding personal whining.
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." - Mark Twain
by spurchief on Oct 24, 2009 6:22 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
For a headless writer, this is heady. Rec
To Manu belongs 999 names. 1,000 – 1. One must keep the names hidden in the deep recesses of the soul. Only by uttering the names in utter reverence and sheer terror shall one experience sublime ecstasy. And as one meditates upon each divine name, one ascends into a higher state of enlightenment. Upon reaching the 999th level, one enters Nirvana and comes into the presence of the Immortal One and gorges on alfajores to your heart’s content.
I will not be held hostage to another season of Kobe-LeBron puppet commercials.
Amen to that. Great stuff once again, Stampler.
by silverandblack_davis on Oct 24, 2009 11:51 PM CDT reply actions
The dreaded IR list
Great article Stampler. Will somebody give me a view on who wears suits and not uniforms at the beginning of the season. All 15 deserve to be suited up, but I beleive the rules say only 12. Who will be the unlucky three and how often will it change? I suspect Bogans, Hairston and Haislip or Mahinmi may sit in the crowd. What thoughts do you all have.?
A detail. It is the inactive list now. Not the old IR where guys had to be on it for 5 games with an injury. You can randomly make guys inactive game to game.
Good question. If Hairston makes the team as the 15th guy, I think he will end up with the Toros for the first part of the season. The Spurs have a really light load and they have plenty of new guys to work in. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Pop is much more interested in finding out if Bogans and Ratliff will fit in and be effective defenders than giving Hairston game time to develop. There are questions to be answered in the first part of the season and those two guys are two of the big questions.
So, assuming Hairston is with the Toros or inactive, we need two more guys. I agree with you. I think Haislip will be inactive for a good chunk of the first month. It doesn’t look to me like he is ready. I get the sense he is still a bit lost in the system. He needs more practice.
For the third inactive spot, I think it will be a rotating list of guys. Bonner, Finley, and Mason will probably each draw one or two in the first month. After the first month, I won’t be surprised to see Bogans, Ratliff, and McDyess occasionally inactive. After the rodeo road trip, I think we’ll be seeing Tim and Manu inactive here and there.
Lastly, don’t think for a second Pop won’t beat Blair with the threat of inactivation whip when he starts to get a big head and thinks he’s the next Barkley.
I really only see three guys not being active this year: Tony, George, and RJ (who I will now be calling Rage from here on out).
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Oct 25, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Rage eh? well if that’s the case, I predict that the starting line-up will feature Tony, Timmy, along with Rage, Rog, and Rouge. Damn Rouge!
When the tooth fairy's own tooth falls out, it is taken during the night by Princess Peanut.
by the little o on Oct 25, 2009 8:39 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
priceless
Blair's the third quarter kick in the opponent's balls - the little o
The Spur's "Los Cojones Grandes"
by 'DSilverlining on Oct 26, 2009 1:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Inactive not IR
Wayne. Thanks for the enlightening. I agree with your breakdown almost entirely. But we are going to need an improved Haislip, especially when facing big and mobile 4s like Nowitski. I think that was why Buford snapped him up. Right now we don’t have a big bothe tall enough and quick enough to guard the Dallas star. The last two seasons, Bowen looked pitiful against Nowitski. Haislip has the size and speed, all he needs to do now is learn the system and what is expected of him. He’s athletic enough, the question is he smart enough?
I agree about Haislip, but I think they will want to give him time to learn the system first. I mean, he’ll play some here and there, but I think it will be the other guys first.
We specialize in misinformation around here. Facts and stats just get in the way.
by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Oct 25, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions

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