Offseason: Step 1 - The Draft
We went in with picks 26, 45, and 57. We came out with George Hill, Malik Hairston, James Gist, the Warriors 2nd round pick next year, and some cash. The George Hill pick threw me for a loop. It put me on the haterwagon. I don't even know what to say about it. But, HMMMMPPPPPHHHHHH! comes to mind. For the sake of my sanity, I'm going to assume that maybe the Spurs front office knows more about evaluating college basketball players and international players than somebody who has never seen them. Me.

In my "Let's bring on the OffSeason" post I identified what I consider the Spurs main needs:
- A big who can bang.
- A big who can spread the floor and play a modicum of athletic defense.
- A fourth player who can create off the dribble.
- A player who can bury the 3-ball and play just a little defense.
- A player who we can run post offense through.
- A wing to play shutdown defense.
- A backup point guard.
Whether you agree on the ordering of the needs or not, I think most of us can get on board with this being a good wish list at the least. So, let's evaluate the draft for what needs we MAY have filled.
- Gist would be the only candidate. When I said a big who can bang I didn't have the 57th pick in the draft in mind. So, I'm saying "no" we didn't fill this need.
- No.
- Here's where George Hill comes into play. I have read that he is a classic combo guard. Which translates into "short shooting guard playing point guard". I think this was the role the Spurs are hoping to fill with Hill.
- Hairston maybe, I guess. Anyway, I can guess they are hoping for this from him.
- No.
- No.
- Hill again, maybe.
So, I'm saying we have a chance of filling a couple needs. At least, I think that is what the front office was targeting. Whether there were other guys other people think would have been better I have to honestly admit that I'm in no position to judge. Time will judge us all. Just hope you don't wake up with Leonard Smalls on your trail.
Anyway, we now move to the next part of the offseason. Free agency baby.
A couple thoughts:
SpurChief mentioned in my other OffSeason post that the Spurs had a fair number of valuable contracts about to expire commodities. I thought, hell yeah. Then I looked. We don't. We have The JV and Umadoka. Totalling 2.2 mill.
We do, however, have very tradeable contracts in Bonner and Oberto who both expire in 2010. As well as Bowen and Ginobili. Parker and Duncan are the only contracts that are definitely on the books after 2010. Which, I believe, is the year LeBron hits free agency. I believe many teams will be looking to clear cap room for that year. I think the Spurs should seriously look to take on a longer term contract sometime during the next year from one of the teams holding a fire sale. We might be able to get somebody for pennies on the dollar. That's my theory anyway. I think it will be a buyers market. So, keep that in the back of your mind.
NOTE: The following analysis is for players currently under contract for next year.
Tim and Tony will play 34-35 minutes per game. Manu will be just under 30. Manu hit a high of 31 this year, but I expect it to drop back down. Tim and Tony have been between 32-35 for the last few years.
- Fab was 20 this past year, 17 the year before. I expect him to stay at 20.
- Bruce has played 30/game the last two years. Again, I expect him to get about 10 more minutes per game than Powell would like to see him have.
- Brent Barry has been about 20 the last two years, 18 and 21, so I expect that to be his limit. Because, you know, he is also going to be 37 next year. And anybody under 6'8" and that fricking old shouldn't be playing that much. Right Powell? Right!
- The JV played 15 a game this year. Up from 12 in 2007. I would like to see him back down around 12.
- Ime played 18 minutes per game this year. But, if you look at his monthly splits, he was up to 23 and 24 in March and April respectively. So, I expect him to be just over 20 for next year.
- Bonner ended the year at 12 per game but he completely dropped out of the Spurs rotation the last couple months. He played 3.7 minutes per game in February. 9 in March and 10 in April and only played in 2 games in the playoffs for a total of 9 minutes. I don't know what to make of him.
- I don't know how much we will get from Ian. But I figure we can at least count on him to get Elson's 13 per game.
- George Hill: ?
Summary:
Tim: 34
Tony: 34
Manu: 30
Fab: 20
Bruce: 30
Brent: 20
The JV: 12
Ime: 20
Bonner: 5
Ian: 12
Hill: ?
Total: That's 217 minutes per game.
We have to get to 240 minutes per game to field a 5 players for a game. So, we are looking to add 23 minutes per game plus injuries. So, if the Spurs have one player hurt every other game we are looking at an additional 1600 minutes (40 games * 40 minutes). 1600/80 = 20 minutes per game. Since I totally pulled these numbers out of my ass, let's just say we need about 40 minutes per game (23 + 20) still.
Minutes by position:
Bigs (total of 96): 34 + 20 + 5 + 12 = 71
Wings (total of 96): 30 + 30 + 20 + 20 = 100
Points (48): 34 + 12 + ? = 46
This tells me we really need to find somebody to play productive minutes on the front line. We don't have a ton of wing minutes except or point minutes availabe. NOTE: The wing minutes are misleading because Brent missed so many games. We also need a couple players to cover for injuries. If we get injuries on the front line, we are in deeper shit. Plus, a fair number of "Bigs" minutes end up being used by "Wings" when we play small ball.
Here are my targets for free agency. We have to sign 2 players and can sign up to 4:
1. Kurt Thomas - he's the most important guy to solidify our front line. He's going to give us a solid 15 per game. I think we will get diminishing returns from Kurt if he is playing more than 15 minutes per game. It will be a red flag for me next year if Kurt is in the 20's. Of course, Kurt is taller than 6' 8" so the fact that he will be 36 is irrelevant.
2. Some productive wing player. Like maybe FinDog!! Just joking. I don't care who we sign, but we need somebody that is going to give us a solid 20 minutes per game on the wing.
3. Another big. Sure Bonner can play more minutes, but we are T-H-I-N thin with just Tim, Fab, Bon-bon, Ian, and KT (if we sign KT)
4. With the drafting of George Hill, I don't think the Spurs are going to sign a free agent point guard. The minutes just aren't there. Unless the plan is to play Hill in Austin for a year.
5. Another wing.
So, I predict the Spurs sign 2 bigs and 1 wing in July leaving 1 roster spot open for the two second round picks and whatever other player may stumble along. I'm going to guess we sign KT and Finley. I'm not thrilled about it, but I think that is what they will do. I have no idea who the third player will be. Since the Spurs don't ask my advice on who to sign, they may go with another wing. Either way, I will bet that it is somebody we get a good deal on. Meaning, we won't out bid another team for someone.
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Comments
Personally...
I blacked out when the math part came. I think first, before we do anything, you should probably get your beautiful mind some sleep, before you start drawing shot arc parabolas on your mirror like Will Hunting.
I honestly would bet on Horry returning next year, for spot minutes, because he’s like a swiss army knife and can do a lot of different things. Old or not, I would expect that Popovich realizes this, but also doesn’t want to let him slip to Houston and then hit a shot against us.
As far as free agency goes, I can’t say I know all that much about any of our prospects, or if I would even put much stock in them. We really only need two guys at the absolute max, but one versatile dude would do wonders for us. Finley’s one dimensionality really screwed us down the stretch, so anyone who can do his job and a little more will be a welcome addition…
by scrappy-doo on Jun 28, 2008 12:56 AM CDT 0 recs
free agency
spurs have 10 players under contract, according the super-reliable hoopshype.com, for 57 million. that does not include g-hill who gets a guaranteed rookie contract for about 800k to make it 58 million. that’s right about where i estimate the salary cap to be this season (could be lower because of recession?) and 12 million under my estimated luxury tax.
so you have 4 spots open and 12 million. who are you going to get?
dave mcnulla
spurs fan
by dmcnulla on Jun 28, 2008 7:06 AM CDT 0 recs
While we have 4 spots open, I say the Spurs leave one open for a scrubby guy. My point is, let’s say we have 3 spots and 12 million, who do you go after? And with how much for each?
I’m guessing KT at 3 mill/year.
Chilldress at 5 mill/year, if not Azubuike at 3 mill/year
Diop at 3 mill/year
Somebody posted that the Mavs are using their full MLE (about 5.5 mill/year I think) on Diop. So that may be a non-issue right there.
by AusTechSpur on
Jun 28, 2008 8:20 AM CDT
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Yeah it’s the latest buzz here in D town. They want Diop back.
Superman wears Manu Ginobili pajamas to bed.
by CMoney on
Jun 28, 2008 9:48 PM CDT
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If the Roster is the same...
Plus Hill and Mahinmi, assuming Hairston and Gist are in teh Dleague, which is probable, might as well cash in the season b/c they wont make it past the conference finals, if they get there at all.
The West is going to be even tougher next year, and if theyre planning on making a run at Lebron or Wade in 2010, thats pretty foolish. Lebron will head for the NY area, and I would imagine Wade would stay in Miami or return home to Chicago.
So id like to see someone like JR Smith or Azuibuke play those 20 mins, or even more b/c Manus minutes should be limited….or perhaps they can run a 3 guard set from time to time.
I more concerned about the wing than the Frontcourt, I think brining back KT and giving Mahinmi playing time should help out Timmy
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jun 28, 2008 9:12 AM CDT 0 recs
That makes the most sense. Hopefully that’s what the Spurs are thinking. The Spurs CAN NOT re-sign Horry. He is useless as a basketball player. He’ll probably be a good coach at some point, but his playing days are DONE.
I never met anybody who said when they were a kid, "I wanna grow up and be a critic." - Richard Pryor
by DennardC on
Jun 28, 2008 1:20 PM CDT
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Yup
I think Matt Bonners situtation should be really interesting; obviously he can shoot really well for a guy his size, but doesnt have the athleticism of Horry, well in his younger days of course….so I wonder if Bonner is long for the Spurs, Pittsnogle is in the D League and is essentially the same player, so there are options for a 4 with shooting range.
I agree, Horry shouldnt waste his time coming back if Pop has no use for him, so I wouldnt be suprised if he goes back to Houston for a farewell/reunion tour.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on
Jun 28, 2008 1:24 PM CDT
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re: horry
i think if Horry signs w/ Houston, t-mac will finally get to the second round! IIRC Horry has never lost in the first round.
by vy til i die on
Jul 1, 2008 1:47 PM CDT
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i agree that the spurs will bring back KT and fin. i would not personally bring back fin – but it aint up to me either. the way this is shaping up, i think i want to see the Spurs sign JR Smith and I cant believe im saying that. I’m OK with Childress, but i’m not as high as you guys on Azubke – or however you spell it.
by bones on Jun 30, 2008 10:18 AM CDT 0 recs
Bringing back Fin will be a mistake. What is he going to be 36? I need to see the offseason in it’s entirety before judging the offseason, but I don’t like the direction it’s going in.
I never met anybody who said when they were a kid, "I wanna grow up and be a critic." - Richard Pryor
by DennardC on Jun 30, 2008 12:53 PM CDT 0 recs










