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basketballgambler/poker pro: Popovich is the best coach and it's not even close

 

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-308/A-Professional-Gambler-s-Take-on-the-Tim-Donaghy-Scandal.html

Really good interview.  Here's his answer on general nba tactics where he mentions popovich kickin ass.  he also is a big fan tactically of hack a shaq.

With the amount of basketball you watch, and the systematic way you analyze it, you must have all kinds of insight into the game that most of us don't have. I'm not looking for gambling tips here, but in general, can you share some knowledge? Like, is this or that coach exceptionally good or bad? Who's your MVP? Are there tactics you think are great or terrible, like Hack-a-Shaq?
As far as insights go, I think teams that are losing tend to wait too long to foul. I also think that if the rules for "hack a Shaq or hack a Ben" aren't changed, teams should really consider fouling players who hit less than 45% of their free throws even when winning a game between the four-minute mark and the two-minute mark of the fourth quarter.

One tactic that I feel is pretty silly is the "foul to give." A lot of teams use this really liberally and will even foul when there is a difference in the game clock to shot clock. For example say there is a four-second differential between the shot and game clock and a team will still take "foul to give." This is foolish because it eliminates the last four seconds whereby the defending team could then get the ball and have a chance to score.

Another clock management example I hate is when teams don't try to get a shot off in the last 30-39 seconds of a quarter, there are a lot of teams who seem to waste these seconds.

Both of these are pretty basic game situations, but you'd be surprised how many teams eliminate extra offensive possessions as if it's their job.

The flip side of that are the teams/players who do a great job of garnering extra possessions, my numbers tell me the Hornets and the Spurs do this best.

The best coach in the league (and its not even close) is Gregg Popovich. He is without peer in terms of how well he manages a game, as well as prepares his team. It's really not even close, he is just that much better than every other coach in the league. If you are ever unsure of what the correct strategy is in a certain situation, look to the Spurs. If they are doing it, it's probably the right strategy.

There are a lot of coaches who do a poor job with what I call the mathematics of the game, but to be fair, maybe they are better at other aspects of their job like motivation or player development.

However, I have a hard time believing that Doc Rivers could ever make up for his in-game strategy with his ability to motivate or develop players. I would like to have seen how the Celtics would have fared this year if they didn't hire Tom Thibodeau to install a great defensive system. If Popovich is the guy you lean to if you are unsure of what to do, Rivers is certainly the guy you look to if you want to know what NOT to do.

As far as MVP goes, I am not even sure what criteria the NBA uses to define its MVP award. If you go by the last few years, especially the years Nash won and use the "guy who means the most to his team" definition. I'd have to go with LeBron, Garnett, or even Chris Paul over Kobe.

I'd like to see how far the Cavs would go if Kobe and LeBron switched teams.

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speaking of Tom Thibodeau, here's a wacky idea...

...How about extending the “Coach of the Year” award to include more than just the “head coaches.”

by Gino20 on Jun 13, 2008 6:38 PM CDT reply actions  

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