Yikes. Despite a promising start, our boys got hammered in the second half, and looked a whole lot like the spuRS we had to put up with in the last couple of weeks of the season. Here's what I think is the prescription for game 2...
First, none of the adjustments will matter if Timmy doesn't make his little hook shots and bank shots, and if the rest of the guys don't knock down the open j's. Right now, Parker's the only guy I feel confident in shooting. Even Ginobili seems to be in a funk; maybe he's hurt more than they are letting on.
First, I would move Timmy onto David West. He absolutely destroyed Old Man Muffs, FabO, and Crazy Eyes. I don't know that TD would shut him down, but he would do better than those three guys did. And you'd have less to worry about with those other guys on Chandler; maybe he gets a few more offensive rebounds, but it's not like Timmy kept him off the boards entirely.
Secondly, if Timmy is guarding West, that means that West will often have to pick Timmy up defensively in quick transition, because it will be tougher for Chandler to pick up Duncan in a cross-matchup. If West is guarding Duncan, maybe TD can put some fouls on him.
Psychologically, maybe that will get TD a little more engaged and focused, that he has a mano a mano battle against the other team's best big. If the Spurs can't win that matchup, they don't have a chance in the series anyways.
I think Peja played about as well as he is capable of playing. I don't think any adjustments are in order on that front. He won't continue to make all of those little floaters and pull up j's. If he does, well, it's just not your day.
If Duncan struggles in the low post again, it might make sense to pull Duncan away from the basket offensively and get him involved with pick and rolls with Manu and Tony. That will get him some shots without having to worry about the coming double.
That said, I think game one boiled down to a couple of factors:
1. West, Stojakovic, and Wells all played and shot as well offensively as they are capable of playing. They may continue to play well, but it would surprise me if they continued to play THAT well.
2. Duncan and Ginobili (after the asinine ring of fire) played as poorly as they are capable of playing. Ginobili had a string of momentum-turning turnovers with the game in the balance in the 3rd quarter. If the Spurs score on those possessions, maybe they stem the tide, but instead, the turnovers unleashed a deluge.
3. The Spurs wings HAVE TO hit their open shots. Otherwise, this could go the way of the Lakers series in 2004, where Turkoglu, Bowen, and Devin Brown combined to shoot something like 15% from 3.
Usually, the "they played well, we played poorly" card gives you hope, because you figure it will turn around. I think it will turn around, but will it turn around by 15-20 points? That call is harder to make.
Before the series, I thought "at least it's New Orleans," because I don't especially dislike NO and figured it would hurt less losing to them than it would losing to the Suns, Lakers, or Mavs. I'm starting to dislike CPunk3 (flopping to try to draw a tech on a dead ball?) enough to where that's no longer in play. I guess it goes to show that a fan will turn on any opponent their team has to face.