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A Pack of Lies: A Preview of This Year's Pessimism

Let's face it: we're all bitter, cynical pessimists. We have to be - at no point in this century have we been more than two years away from a ring, and we've got a legit GOAT flanked by two no-nonsense all-stars. If we weren't pessimists, we'd be arrogant jerks. And we're not jerks. So we're going to spend the rest of this season, like every season, going back to the same old wells for reasons why we can't win it all this year.

One problem: those wells are drying up.

The Spurs are too old. This one just gets better every year, right? Unfortunately, I was momentarily distracted by a bumblebee, and when I turned back around Los Spurs had pulled a fast one. A couple of fast ones, actually - fast, athletic, and above all young. Out with RoHo, in with Hill and Mason - and suddenly time is on our side.

We don't have the offense. God, tell me about it. I have this dream where I'm naked, and I'm falling, and Pop has got Fab, Horry, Bowen and FinDog in with JV running the point. But now ... feel free to double-check my math, but Duncan + Parker + Manu + Mason + Hill = five guys who can go off at any time. That means the only way Pop can field a No-O lineup once we whittle this down to a nine-man rotation will be if he decides to go four-on-five.

Point guards? What point guards? For how long have we lived and died by the fact that Manu can de facto run the point when we need him to? Because face it, Parker has to sit sometime, and Manu was the only other guy on the team who could be reliably counted on not to dribble off his foot. Don't look now guys, but at this point it would take some creativity on Pop's part to field a lineup containing not one but two guys who can handle, pass, and create.

Our bench makes a mud puddle look like the Marianas Trench. Yikes. If we didn't insist on pretending that Manu's a reserve, we'd be looking at bench production you can count without taking off your shoes. We're used to very delicate math in San Antonio - an average of twenty points apiece from our big three, another fifteen or so from some combination of Bowen corners, Fab garbage collection, and FinDog doggery, and then whatever the hell the scrubs can put together while the real players wince from the sidelines. Now? I just watched a game in which the bench came up with 54 points. More than twice what the other team's bench scored. Stop me if you can see where I'm going with this.

Time to face facts, gentlemen: it's time to turn over a new leaf. And so I humbly submit two plausible reasons for despair, to keep us from unsightly glee whenever Manu turns back the clock with an exclamation-point dunk or Mr. Hill rejects the #1 draft pick. Some fear for this year:

Chemistry problems. We've never seen Mason and Hill in the same rotation as Manu and Parker. Who knows what could happen? Sure, Hill seems to actually do better off the bench, and it's hard to picture career-backup-turned-lottery-winner Mason getting chippy with Emmanuel "I don't give a flying f***" Ginobili, but who knows. Maybe having defensive pressure diverted towards the all-stars will destroy the newbies' sense of self-worth, and they'll start to sulk at being guarded by scrubs.

Too many steps have been lost. Tim and Bruce are minus a step, people. Finley? Seven steps. Okay, there's no actual evidence for the first one, and the last one has been true since last century. But ... Bruce! What will we do, now that Mr. Potato Head isn't quite so quick on his ankle-snapping feet? I'm worried that pretty soon, all he'll be good for will be throwing elbows, funnelling opponents in to the bigs and taking the occasional spot-up jumper.

Wait...

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Good stuff and well written.

I was thinking the same thing about Mason and Hill getting less minutes once Manu and Tony come back. And how this would affect their play.

But I think having lots of options in the backcourt can only help our team. Manu and Tony will also have off games so Pop can put the new guys in and not lose anything on either end of the court.

I think our biggest issue is the frontcourt. Tim playing great is probably hiding the problems but he will need help. So we need a high rebounding, shot blocking center.

Mahinmi has potential if he can ever get on the court (is he big enough to play center?)

Other than that, it’s Kurt, Oberto and Bonner.
Any chance of old but effective bigs like McDyess (re-signing with Det) or Camby? (I think there is a rumor that Camby might be out now that Zach Randolf is in)

by werdnawee on Nov 27, 2008 1:42 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I concur that we need a big man to help Duncan to at least defend and rebound and Mahinmi is big and athletic enough but Pop needs to play him now to enhance his development. Should we wait for a Duncan injury to acknowledge that we don’t have anybody who can defend the paint? I guess if Parker wasn’t injured, Hill would still be in the bench and Pop holding the leash as he did with Udrih, not letting him play to his potential. And Mason wouldn’t have enough possession to show he can shoot. Now that Parker’s back, Mason’s touches were now limited because Parker’s always shooting, its nice but if he’s forcing it as in a play against the rockets where he chose to go up against four instead of passing to Mason who’s wide open on his right (he’s driving from the left so he could’ve easily made the pass) then it’s not gonna help. Give Mahinmi a chance, and teach and encourage him to reach his potential. Spurs should do it for Duncan who gave up his maximum pay when he renewed his contract for the team to rebuild. Use the money to hire a coach like the Lakers did with Bynum. Remember kobe wants Bynum traded because he thought he can’t play. I think Pop is doing a kobe on Mahinmi. And getting dunked on by Bynum wasn’t a gauge on how Mahinmi can contribute to the team.(After that play last year, Mahinmi was sent back to the D league).

by 21td on Nov 30, 2008 1:12 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right now, Mahinmi is recovering from an injury with the Toros. How is anyone “doing a kobe on Mahinmi”? He hasn’t even played because of an injury.

I'm comfortable winning -- Emmanuel Ginobili

by pollackj on Dec 1, 2008 12:45 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i think he’s talking about last year when Pop sent him down to the D league, and possibly this year when he was sent down again because of the injury.

by znimrod on Dec 1, 2008 10:33 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I completely agree. I think this is my favorite spurs TEAM in quite a while. We’ve been great before (we were insane in 2007 when tim should have been mvp(check the plus/minus nubers)), but this is the first tim since like 2003 that I actually liked our first couple choices off the bench.

I think we could be really good this year.

Then again, I’m a homer and drunk…

by Krukow on Nov 27, 2008 2:33 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great writeup. I’m in agreement with your various points. I wonder if Pop will give Roger Mason the ball at end of clock situations now, or if Manu will get all of them. Buck Harvey wrote a good article about the Spurs’ sudden depth and athleticism at the guard/swing position.

I feel a special sort of PYPWYMI pride in this team’s early season success. I went to a Wiz game in Washington last year, so when the Spurs signed Roger Mason in the offseason, I was convinced that he could play. I also argued that if the front office picked George Hill, he must be decent. You can argue with not signing Scola, or with being wrong about bringing Splitter over, but if you look at the guys the Spurs drafted, they’ve all been pretty much the best player available at that draft slot. Manu, Tony, Scola, Splitter, Barbosa, Beno… so if the F.O. thought Hill could play, I thought he deserved the benefit of the doubt.

Just so I don’t hurt my shoulder patting myself on the back too much, I’ll point out that I’m recently on record as saying that I didn’t think that Matt Bonner was an NBA player, and he’s going all Red Rocket in my face. I also thought Vince Young was a potential hall of fame QB in the NFL; I’ll just tell myself that he’s only in his third year, he could still develop into an all-timer.

Catch the Spurs Spirit! It's a Fast-breakin' Fiesta!

by tomasito on Nov 27, 2008 7:55 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we’ll most likely HAVE to get another center to compete with the lake-show. Pretty sure Bynum could mop the floor with KT and Oberto, and I don’t even want to fathom what he’d do to BonBon

What the Bowen giveth Horry taketh away. --LatinD (2008 Playoffs Round 2, Game 1)

the Spurs do not defeat you so much as they grind you into tiny shards of psychological wreckage.
-the Denver Post

by Hamer_SpursFan on Nov 27, 2008 9:38 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

let’s pray that Yawn can be a miracle big, a christmas miracle.

by znimrod on Nov 27, 2008 10:19 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good points..

I cant believe how wrong I was about George Hill, he’s going to be a huge asset for this team. I was ambivalent towards Mason, he put up good numbers when the Hibachi was out, so I figured, worst case scenario, he’d be the same as Barry. But he’s obviously performed at a higher level than that.

BUT, i do not think the criticism we leveed at the FO was unwarranted. Look at that list tomasito trotted out: Scola, Barbosa, Udrih….they can all play, so credit them for finding them, but the manner in which they were traded left me scratching my head. I’ll give you Barbosa’s trade got us the 05 title in an indirect way, but the Scola deal is inexcusable.

I still hold out hope that Splitter will be here before the decade is through. And if Mahinmi can get some minutes and build on his DLeague development, all those age and bench questions are gone.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 27, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Easy champ. Although I agree with your points and recognize that things are coming together better than anyone ever imagined, I also am not so naive to look past the fact that we’ve only played 14 games. There’s still a loooooong road ahead. We need to see how everything gels with a full, healthy squad and we need to have the same successes playing the upper tier of the league and not the lowest tier.

Charles Barkley once made a comment I’ll never forget. He was talking about the Joe Johnsons and Mike Redds of the world, and said roughly “Box scores don’t matter. On a bad team, someone has to score. Doesn’t mean they’re a star, just that they’re getting the ball.” I’m reminded of this quote because yes, George and Mason look fantastic. Yes, I’m also feeling wonderful about the now brilliant again front office. But as you said, “Wait…”

All that pessimism out in the open (and it’s not so much pessimism or negativity but cautious realism), I’m very VERY excited about this year. Udoka and Bowen have fallen off the map, but Finley and Bonner have emerged. And Timmy is actually playing at a career high (High in points and assists, lows in TOs, PFs and minutes). And the new guys seem to have more than replaced our losses. Manu’s back and getting back in shape and Tony’s coming soon. It’s looking good.

by SgtinManusArmy on Nov 27, 2008 11:45 AM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Now, in a way I’m with you and Sir Charles; the tallest midget on a crappy team certainly gets more spotlight than he deserves. But remember – the Joe Johnsons and Mike Redds of the world are still quality players, legit borderline all-stars who just happen to look like superstars because of who they play with. If you replaced Mike Redd with Jacque Vaughn the JV wouldn’t suddenly look like a stud, he’d look like just another crappy player on a crappy team. Mason and Hill would look like studs.

You have to at least be pretty good in this league to get overrated. And if these guys were our second and third options, I’d be concerned – I’d say “hey, wait a sec … are these guys really good enough to carry the franchise?”

But they’re not our second and third guys. They’re currently fighting to be our fourth and fifth guys.

If they turn out to just be borderline all-stars … you know what, I’m okay with that.

by Rand on Nov 27, 2008 8:25 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I anticipated someone pointing that out about JJ and Redd, and I see what you’re saying. They’re just simple examples, and I don’t even know that Barkley pointed them specifically out by name. But I’m not comparing those two TO Hill or Mason. I’m using them as examples of players who are thought much better because they put up numbers on crappy teams. Someone has to. And it’s not that I think that’s the role Mace and Hill are filling; I’m just cautious before expanding the trophy case. I think they’re both filling roles that none of us thought they would (with the obvious exception of the FO), and they’re both proving to be steals. After playing only 17% of a season. On an incomplete team. Playing teams in the 2nd tier of the NBA.

If they turn into borderline all-stars, I too will be able to deal with that. I simply need to see more, MUCH more, before I abandon all pessimism. I’m pessimistic about consistancy, rebounding and defensive rotations right now. Usually those concerns are much diminished by the time spring rolls around, don’t worry.

by SgtinManusArmy on Nov 27, 2008 10:11 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You’re just mad that I’m now wise to your s4d s4m.

by SgtinManusArmy on Nov 28, 2008 12:27 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you mean s4d s5m.

by AusTechSpur on Nov 28, 2008 7:28 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No. S-yste-m. S4m.

So sad, ATS.

by LatinD on Nov 28, 2008 8:46 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Are you sure it wasn’t S-arcas-m. S5m.

by AusTechSpur on Nov 28, 2008 10:40 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was “S-yste-m.” You guys are so cute.

by SgtinManusArmy on Nov 28, 2008 11:45 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’m an optimist at heart, so this is a post I can get behind. One reason to despair that you forget? Our troubles getting rebounds, especially defensive rebounds. We don’t really have a reliable center to help Timmy. I think we all agree that that’s the piece we’re lacking right now.

Also, as much as it surprises me, Finley’s been playing well. Last night was the first game in a while in which his jumper didn’t fall.

By the way, I’d like to point out that well-written posts like this one take time and effort to write. We’re supposed to rec such posts, something we (and I include myself in this group) often forget. Give the man the credit he’s due.

Oh, and how much do you think Pop’s beard influenced his new laissez-faire attitude regarding rooks?


Pop, circa 2010. “Bosh? Not savvy enough.”

by LatinD on Nov 27, 2008 1:45 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's a chicken/egg question

Did Pop’s beard influence his new laissez-faire attitude regarding rooks? Or did his new rookie-friendly attitude make him feel like growing the beard?

Like the number of licks it takes to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop — perhaps the world will never know.

I am calm, filling myself with patience - Manu Ginobili

by jollyrogerwilco on Nov 27, 2008 9:33 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In either case...

his beard has done more for the team than any other beard since Baron Davis’ beard eliminated the Mavs a couple years back

If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a non-working cat.

by Windex40 on Nov 29, 2008 5:07 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Windex, good to see ya. Been a while.

What’cha been up to?

I am calm, filling myself with patience - Manu Ginobili

by jollyrogerwilco on Nov 29, 2008 10:25 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hehe

Been quietly watching the proceedings around here while being locked away in my lab writing up my dissertation proposal. Hopefully in a couple of months I’ll be able to join all yall for a game.

If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a non-working cat.

by Windex40 on Dec 1, 2008 12:32 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually, the beard is his secret weapon to land LeBron in 2010. Pop will rehire Carlisimo, then set up a simultaneous meeting of LeBron, Oden, and OJ Mayo. The smooth-faced suitors won’t stand a chance.

chaos... panic... pandemonium... my work here is done.

by rick2g on Nov 30, 2008 1:00 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Spurs are the new Golden State Warriors…only with one big man instead of none and they play better perimeter defense (the Warriors played none).

The Warriors with Mullin, Hardaway and Richmond were fun to watch, but always flamed out bad in the later rounds of the playoffs.

You can’t rebound and you can’t play interior defense, you don’t win championships.

So, in summary, enjoy the limited success and don’t make any plans on beating the Lakers.

TANK IN 08! That is our only hope.

by Clintons Cigar on Nov 30, 2008 2:49 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

TANK in 08!
SHINE in 09!

by AusTechSpur on Nov 30, 2008 3:26 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As we all know, my job here it too squelch any positivity as soon as it rears its beautiful, sublime head. And while I too am impressed with the play of Mssrs. Hill and Mason, I must point out the following:

The Spurs have had the 9th easiest schedule in the league so far.
The Spurs have two wins against teams with winning records.

One was UTA, who was without half their team.
The other was HOU by two points, and they just thrashed us by 21 w/o McGrady.

Of course, given our injuries, I can’t believe we’re 9-7. But that’s not the role I play here.

by sungo on Dec 1, 2008 10:54 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry, I’ve been holding onto that for awhile. But in all seriousness; yes, you’re dead on, and I’ve been warning the same. And I’ve been reemed consistantly by all for being a “pessimist.” Prepare yourself, you negative nelly.

by SgtinManusArmy on Dec 1, 2008 11:57 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow, you can really see that the production values of the promotional material for KillJoy 2 were so much better than for the first KillJoy. Guess the initial must have made quite a little bundle.

I am calm, filling myself with patience - Manu Ginobili

by jollyrogerwilco on Dec 2, 2008 12:17 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Daamn, those are good. I have to watch Killjoy.

by LatinD on Dec 2, 2008 5:09 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I’d rather watch a replay of the Spurs-Rockets match. (the 19pt shocker)

by werdnawee on Dec 2, 2008 7:32 AM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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