Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

by sungo on Dec 15, 2005 3:13 PM CST in Spurs News

Tonight's starting lineups:

SA (17-4, 7-3 away)
PG The French Layup Machine
SG Michael Finley
SF Bruce Bowen
PF Tim Duncan
C Rasho Nesterovic

MIN (12-8, 7-3 home)
PG Marco Jaric
"S"G Trenton Hassell
SF Wally Szczerbiak
PF KG
C Michael Olowokandi

Ahh, we finally get the first matchup of the season between KG and TD. I've written approximately 314159 words on the subject, so what's a few more.

Everyone knows that MIN missed the playoffs last year (by one game). They finished 44-38 with a point differential of +1.5 (which was better than all but 2 teams in the Eastern Conference). There was squabbling and cage-rattling from Cassell and Sprewell and of course the infamous and priceless "I have to feed my family" quote. That dynamic duo was replaced by Marco Jaric and some combination of Richie Frahm and Rashad McCants.

Granted, it's still relatively early in the season, but MIN sure looks better this year. They're atop their division with a point differential of +4.1 good for fifth in the entire league. Hmm. Why the change? Marco Jaric can't be that good can he?

Of course not. But, unlike last year's version of Sam Cassell, he can play ~70% of your team's minutes. Sam accounted for only 39%. He also has the reputation of being a plus defender (something Sam cannot claim) and has an extra 4" in height, allowing him to play some 2. In fact, if you look at 82games.com player pairs you can find that Marco has played 190 minutes of SG with either Carter or Hudson. That amounts to 9.5 MPG, or 31% of Sprewell's minutes from last year.

Ooh! Some more interesting stuff from 82games.com! Last year MIN's PG+SG had a combined PER+/- of -5. This year the same value is +1.9. That's a BIG swing. Opponent PG PER is down 6.1! Marco Jaric for defensive player of the year!

But seriously folks. Let's use some common sense. Latrell Sprewell is a whiny trollop who cannot even get a contract offer over the vet minimum (except from ATL, but they don't count). Sam Cassell is just a whiny trollop. They leave and the team gets better. Do the math.

Tonight's line: SA -3
Tonight's total: 174
My pick: MIN
Matty da Blade's plays: SA | OVER
The Spurs are 10-11 this year ATS. I am 7-13. Da Blade is 11-8-1 ATS | 6-6 TOT.

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Comments

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Being 10-11 against the spread, does that mean the Spurs are less predictable this year than last? Last year, weren't they beating opponents by more than almost 10 points a game? What is it this year? And does it matter? I know nothing about gambling.

by Jmoney @ Pounding The Rock on Dec 15, 2005 4:51 PM CST reply actions

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The Spurs are officially 10-11, but two of those covers were in overtime games. They were "supposed" to win by ~6 points and ended up tied in regulation. They blew the opponent out in OT and ended up covering. That's basically a false positive and 8-13 is a more accurate representation.

Vegas has been throwing huge spreads at Spurs games this year. They're the defending champs and the "general opinion" is that they would be even better this year.

by sungo on Dec 15, 2005 5:00 PM CST up reply actions

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

News flash....the Minnesota Toothpick is a choker. Always has been, always will be. Lots of last second clang action tonight. Love it! Still haven't forgotten in 1999 when Robinson pushed MT into the first row like he was made of paper.

Anyone catch Parker hustling down court to stay in front of Ragedy Ann Hudson as time expired? Forced him into a fall away brick job.

WTF is the French Layup Machine doing with so few all star votes? Are people watching the games being played? Disgraceful.

WTF is Tim Duncan doing so far behind McGrady in the balloting? I think some of Yeows Chineese brethern are tilting the vote. Good thing more Rockets aren't on the ballot or we might have an all Rocket Western all start team. This is no joke. Talk about stacking the deck. It was cool seeing Shaq screwed and Yeow getting the start when the cross eyed one was in LA, but it stinks when a gentlemen like Duncan gets punked by the commies. REACTION!!!

by MrX on Dec 15, 2005 10:55 PM CST reply actions

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Only a Spurs fan would talk trash about KG after he went for 24/21/6/4 while Tim goes 5-15 and misses 3 big FTs down the stretch (3-6 in the fourth).

by sungo on Dec 15, 2005 11:33 PM CST up reply actions

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

whoa, hold on there professor!

I think all teams have fans like that. The Spurs' are no worse than any others. As Mr. X proved, they're also no better....

one thing, watching last night's game, your defense of KG as >TD didn't exactly take a hit...

Was it just me, or was that whole game one of the streakiest ever? Even leaving out the whole quarter 1 and quarter 2 turnaround, seemed like the margin jumped from 4 to 10 and back every other possession or so...

by Pflash on Dec 16, 2005 3:36 PM CST up reply actions

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The toothpick makes all his points when they don't count. Late in the game, don't look his direction. They guy is Mr Clang. Tim D might not bringing it like he should for the full 48, but late in the game, the guy is reliable. See game 7 of the NBA finals. The toothpick can only dream of being the clutch player Tim D is. How many rings does the overated one?

by MrX on Dec 21, 2005 7:05 AM CST reply actions

Re: Game 22 Preview: SA @ Minnesota Timberwolves

You're using the Finals as proof that Duncan is clutch? Did you even watch the playoffs last year? Game 7 when Tim went 10-27? How about Game 5 when he missed 7 out of 11 free throws? Or Game 4 when he was 5-17? Or Game 3 when he was 5-15?

I can understand thinking Duncan is a better player than Garnett, but using the Finals as an example of Duncan's "clutchness" is really fucking stupid.

by sungo on Dec 21, 2005 3:39 PM CST up reply actions